Hundreds of oil tankers remain idle on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz as Iran has effectively closed the waterway, sending oil prices above $100, the highest since 2022, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Tanker traffic in the strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has plummeted after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Tehran on February 28. Asian countries, including India, China and Japan, as well as some European countries, obtain much of their energy needs from the Gulf. A disruption in supply will shake the global economy.
In order to cushion the shock, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has decided release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated reduction in the agency’s history. But it has not been able to lower prices.
The agency had released about 182 million barrels after the Russian invasion of Ukraine to stabilize oil prices.
According to the agency, oil shipments through the strategic waterway have fallen to less than 10 percent of prewar levels, threatening one of the most critical arteries of the global energy system.
IEA members collectively hold about 1.25 billion barrels in government-controlled emergency reserves, along with about 600 million barrels in industrial inventories tied to government obligations.
A large number in a massive market
The figure may seem huge, but it shrinks quickly compared to the scale of global energy demand.
“This feels like a small bandage on a big wound,” said energy strategist Naif Aldandeni, describing the world’s largest coordinated emergency release of oil as governments struggle to stabilize war-shaken markets.
The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global consumption of oil and other liquids will average 105.17 million barrels per day in 2026. At that rate, 400 million barrels would theoretically cover only four days of global consumption.
Even compared to normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (about 20 million barrels per day), the oil released is equivalent to only about 20 days of typical flows.
Aldandeni told Al Jazeera that emergency reserves can calm panic in the markets, but they cannot replace the lost function of a disrupted shipping corridor.
“The release may soften the shock and calm nerves temporarily,” he said, “but it will remain limited as long as the fundamental problem – the freedom of supply and movement of oil tankers through Hormuz – remains unresolved.”
Oil prices reflect those anxieties. Brent crude oil ended Friday trading at $103.14 a barrel, after rising to nearly $120 earlier as fears of production and shipping disruptions intensified.
Geopolitical risk premium
Oil expert Nabil al-Marsoumi said the rise in prices cannot be explained solely by supply fundamentals.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz added approximately $40 per barrel as a geopolitical risk premium above what market fundamentals would normally dictate,” he told Al Jazeera.
From that perspective, releasing strategic reserves primarily serves as a temporary tool to cushion that premium rather than fundamentally rebalancing the market.
Prices above $100 per barrel are uncomfortable for major consumer economies already struggling to curb inflation and protect economic growth.
Recent EIA projections suggest that global demand has not yet decreased significantly due to the war and remains near 105 million barrels per day. Market pressure is therefore less due to falling consumption and more due to fears of supply shortages and delays in deliveries to refineries and consumers.
Threats to oil infrastructure
The latest escalation could deepen those fears.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday that US Central Command (CENTCOM) had “executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the Middle East and completely destroyed all MILITARY targets on Iran’s crown jewel, Kharg Island.”
He added that “for reasons of decency” he had “chosen NOT to erase the island’s oil infrastructure,” but warned that Washington might reconsider that restraint if Iran continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
CENTCOM confirmed the operation and stated that US forces had attacked “more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg Island, while preserving oil infrastructure.”
Meanwhile, Iranian officials have warned that they would attack US-linked energy facilities across the region if Iranian oil infrastructure comes under direct attack.
Kharg Island is not simply a military location. It serves as the main export terminal for Iranian crude oil, making it a critical node in the country’s oil supply network.
If attacks move from obstructing shipping to attacking export infrastructure itself, the crisis could move from a hotspot disruption scenario to one involving direct losses of production and export capacity.
In such circumstances, oil released from emergency reserves would act only as a temporary bridge and not as a lasting solution to the loss of supply.
Major oil companies such as QatarEnergy, the world’s largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Bahrain’s state oil company Bapco have shut down production and declared force majeure, while Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil producer, and the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC has closed its refineries.
Emergency reserve limits
Even in a less severe scenario – where maritime disruption persists but infrastructure remains intact – the ability of strategic reserves to stabilize markets remains limited by logistics.
The US Department of Energy said the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve contained 415.4 million barrels as of February 18, 2026. Its maximum extraction capacity is 4.4 million barrels per day, and the oil needs about 13 days to reach US markets following a presidential release order.
That means even the world’s largest emergency stockpile can’t flood the market with crude immediately. The release must pass through pipelines, transportation networks and refining capacity before reaching consumers.
Aldandeni said the current intervention would likely produce only a temporary stabilizing effect, while al-Marsoumi warned that a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz – or the spread of threats to other choke points such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea – could quickly drive prices up further.
