The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) ( SPY ) is down -0.30%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) ( DIA ) is down -0.88%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) ( QQQ ) is down -0.11%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.42%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -0.26%.
Stocks were lower today due to a +6 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and a +4% drop in WTI crude oil prices. Crude oil prices are trading higher despite the IEA’s decision to release oil stockpiles.
Stocks are under pressure as the Iran war continues, three ships were hit by missiles in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf today, and new missiles are targeting Israel.
However, tech stocks are seeing support from today’s positive AI news from Oracle.
Stocks showed little net reaction to the CPI report, which was in line with market expectations.
The oil market was boosted by today’s decision by IEA members to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, much larger than the 182 million barrels released in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The release is designed to replace oil lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and production cuts by Persian Gulf oil producers, although it will take some time for oil reserves to reach the market.
Today’s US February CPI report was in line with market expectations. February CPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, while February core CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Today’s headline CPI report of +2.4% y/y was just 0.1 points above the 5-year low posted in April 2025, while today’s core CPI of +2.5% y/y matched the 5-year low posted in the previous two months. Although the CPI figures are at or near a 5-year low, they are still above the Fed’s target of +2%. In addition, inflationary pressures will worsen in the coming months due to the recent rise in oil and gas prices due to the Iran conflict.
Stocks fell today after JPMorgan Chase said it was limiting lending to private credit funds to target some of its debt in the sector, hampering the sector’s efforts to weather the current crisis. The $1.8 trillion private credit sector is struggling to combat investor outflows driven by unattractive returns and fears of more financial distress among portfolio borrowers.
With Q4 earnings season nearly over, more than 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings are a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies reporting to beat expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase to +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Excluding top seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Foreign stock markets are mixed. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -1.00%. China Shanghai Composite closed up +0.25%. Japan’s Nikkei stock closed up 225 +1.43%, adding to Tuesday’s +2.88% recovery.
Interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) were down by -16.5 points. The 10-year T-note yield is +5.6 bp higher at 4.212%, adding to Tuesday’s +6 bp gain. T-note prices fell to 2.386% on today’s +4% fall in oil prices and +3.6 bp rise in 10-year inflation expectations. T-note prices were also reduced by supply ahead of today’s 10-year T-notes sale and Thursday’s 30-year Treasury sale. The t-note market largely dismissed today’s CPI report as breaking news, given the surge in oil and gas prices since the start of the Iran war.
European government bond yields are sharply higher. The 10-year German bond yield is +9.6 bp higher at 2.932%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is +14.4 bp higher at 4.698%.
Swaps discount a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US stock movers
The top seven technology stocks were mixed, with Amazon.com ( AMZN ) showing a decline of more than -1% but Tesla ( TSLA ) showing a nearly +2% gain.
Oracle ( ORCL ) is up more than +10% after reporting strong results and guidance pointing to strong demand for AI computing.
Oracle news provides early support to the software and computing infrastructure sector, but many of its stocks are now down. Datadog (DDOG) is up more than +2%. However, IBM ( IBM ) and Microsoft ( MSFT ) are both down about -0.8%.
Chip stocks also saw some support from the Oracle news, leading gains of more than +3% in Micron Technology ( MU ) and more than +2% in Intel ( INTC ). Nvidia ( NVDA ) is up +0.4%
Oil stocks are seeing support with today’s rally in oil prices. Marathon Oil (MPC) and Valero are up more than +4%. Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ), Devon Energy ( DVN ), and APA Corp ( APA ) are up more than +2%.
Nike (NKE) gave up early advances and is now little changed after being upgraded to an overweight from Barclays.
The Campbell Company ( CPB ) is down more than -7% after cutting its full-year earnings guidance.
UniFirst Corp ( UNF ) is up more than +8% after Santas agreed to buy the company in a deal worth $5.5 billion.
Earnings Reports (3/11/2026)
Campbell Company (CPB).
As of the date of publication, Amir Espland had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
