The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down -0.88% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -1.06%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -1.03%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) are down -0.97%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) are down -1.10%.
Stocks are under pressure today as crude oil prices rise amid widespread production and transportation disruptions in the Middle East. WTI crude is up more than +8% today after Iraq suspended oil terminal operations following an Iranian attack on two tankers. Oman also temporarily evacuated an important oil export facility in Mina al-Fahl, and Iran increased attacks on Dubai. Crude oil prices today after the statements of the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who said that Iran’s intervention should be used to close the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Arab neighbors of the Gulf will continue.
Crude oil prices are rising today after IEA members decided on Wednesday to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves. The IEA said that the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of the world’s oil supply and that the war will reduce the world’s oil supply by 8 million barrels this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has blocked the flow of oil and gas due to Iranian attacks on ships in the waters and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they cannot export from the region.
Iranian President Masoud Pizshakian said his country would need “strong international guarantees against future aggression” to accept a ceasefire and reparations. However, President Trump’s comments late Wednesday suggested the conflict could drag on for weeks after he said it would be unwise for the United States to end hostilities too soon.
US economic news was mixed for stocks today after weekly jobless claims rose less than expected, a sign of a strengthening labor market. Also, John’s housing starts unexpectedly rose to an 11-month high, but John’s building permits fell to a 5-month low.
Initial weekly US jobless claims fell -1,000 to 213,000, showing a stronger labor market than expected for a rise to 215,000.
US housing starts unexpectedly rose +7.2% m/m to an 11-month high of 1.487 million, stronger than expectations for a decline to 1.341 million. John’s construction permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -5.4% m/m to a 5-month low of 1.376 million, weaker than expectations for 1.410 million.
The US January trade deficit narrowed to -$54.5 billion, less than expected -$66.0 billion.
With Q4 earnings season nearly over, more than 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings are a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 492 S&P 500 companies reporting to beat expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase to +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Excluding top seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a 0% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Foreign stock markets are lower. The Euro Stoxx 50 is down -0.86%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell off a 1-week high and closed down -0.10%. Japan’s Nikkei stock fell 225 -1.04%.
Interest rates
June 10-year T notes (ZNM6) fell by -9 points. The 10-year T-note yield is up +1.6 bp to 4.245%. June T-notes fell to a 5-week low today, and the 10-year T-note yield hit a 5-week high of 4.249%. Today’s +8% fall in oil prices raises inflation expectations and lowers T-note prices. Also, concerns that the cost of the ongoing war against Iran will increase the US budget deficit are significant for T-notes. Additionally, supply pressures are weighing on T-notes as the Treasury will auction $22 billion of 30-year bonds later today.
European government bond yields are mixed today. German 10-year bund yields rose to a 2.25-year high of 2.958% and rose +1.2 bp to 2.944%. The 10-year British gilt yield is +5.3 bp up 4.739%.
EU chief economist Valdis Dombrovskis said inflation will rise above 3% this year and GDP in the eurozone could drop to -0.4 points if the war in the Middle East keeps crude oil prices around $100 per barrel and gas prices remain high for longer.
Swaps discount a 4% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US stock movers
Airline stocks and cruise line operators fell today due to an 8% increase in crude oil prices, which raises the companies’ fuel costs and threatens earnings. Carnival ( CCL ), Royal Caribbean Cruises ( RCL ), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings ( NCLH ), United Airlines Holdings ( UAL ), American Airlines Group ( AAL ), Alaska Air Group ( ALK ), and Southwest Airlines ( LUV ) are down more than -3%. Also, Delta Air Lines (DAL) is down more than -2%.
Chip stocks are down today, weighing on the broader market. Lam Research ( LRCX ), Applied Materials ( AMAT ), and Micron Technologies ( MU ) are down more than -3%. Also, ASML Holdings NV ( ASML ), Intel ( INTC ), Analog Devices ( ADI ), Advanced Micro Devices ( AMD ), KLA Corp ( KLAC ), ARM Holdings Plc ( ARM ), Microchip Technologies ( MCHP ), and Texas Instruments ( TXN ) are down more than -2%.
Fertilizer stockpiles are rising today amid supply disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. CF Industries Holdings ( CF ) is up more than +7% for the leading gainer in the S&P 500. Also, Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Mosaic (MOS) are up more than +4%.
Netskope ( NTSK ) is down more than -22% after forecasting Q1 adjusted net loss of -6 cents to -7 cents per share, widening from Q4’s -4 cent EPS loss.
G-III Apparel Group Ltd (GIII) is down more than -14% after reporting Q4 net sales of $771.5 million versus consensus of $791.8 million.
Dollar General ( DG ) is down more than -7% on the S&P 500 after delivering a 2027 comparable sales forecast of 2.2% to +2.7%, right in the middle of the +2.45% consensus.
UiPath ( PATH ) is down more than -5% after reporting Q4 subscription revenue of $251.2 million below consensus of $252.1 million.
MercadoLibre ( MELI ) is down more than -4% to lead the losers on the Nasdaq 100 after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight.
Global Foundries ( GFS ) fell more than 4% after a subsidiary of Mubadala Investments Co. said it would sell $852 million of shares in the stock, ranging from $41.60 to $42.60 overnight.
Dow Inc. (DOW) is up more than +6% after Citigroup upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a $40 price target.
Atlassian Corp ( TEAM ) is up more than +4% after announcing a restructuring that will eliminate about 10% of its workforce. UBS upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a $97 price target.
Occidental Petroleum ( OXY ) is up more than +3% after Wells Fargo Securities twice upgraded it from underweight to overweight with a $69 price target.
LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) is up more than +3% after Citigroup raised the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $76.
Earnings Reports (3/12/2026)
Dollar General Corp (DG), Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA), Lennar Corp (LEN), Adobe Inc (ADBE).
As of the date of publication, Amir Espland had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
