March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.15%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures ( NQH26 ) are down -0.14% this morning, giving up earlier gains on President Trump’s comments about the Iran war as Treasury yields rose.
WTI crude fell -4% on Tuesday, adding to earlier session losses after President Trump said the war in Iran could end “very soon”. President Trump also said he would ease oil-related sanctions and pledged that the US Navy would provide escorts to oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. He vowed to bomb “at a very high level” if Iran disrupts oil supplies. Oil prices fell slightly after Iranian state media reported an explosion at an oil tanker near Abu Dhabi.
“Trump’s talk will only go so far. Ultimately, the market will need to resume oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices moving lower,” ING analysts said.
The 10-year T-note yield rose three basis points to 4.13% as the broader geopolitical backdrop remained fragile, with investors continuing to weigh the impact of higher oil prices on inflation.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes erased earlier losses and closed higher. The top seven stocks advanced, with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Nvidia (NVDA) up +2%. Also, AI infrastructure and chip stocks rallied, with SanDisk ( SNDK ) rising more than +11% to lead the S&P 500 and KLA Corp. ( KLAC ) up more than +6%. In addition, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) rose more than +40% after Novo Nordisk agreed to sell its blockbusters Ozempic and Wegovy on the company’s platform. On the bearish side, Paramount Skydance ( PSKY ) fell more than -6% and was the top percentage loser in the S&P 500 after Wells Fargo resumed coverage of the stock with an underweight rating.
“We expect the markets to be very short-term focused, volatile, and headline-based as the fight unfolds this week,” said Carol Shelf at BMO Private Equity.
Meanwhile, short positions in U.S. exchange-traded funds rose 8.3% last week, according to Goldman Sachs’ prime trading desk, marking the largest increase since President Trump’s announcement of mutual tariffs in April and the second-largest increase in the past five years.
Today, investors will focus on the National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales data, scheduled to be released in a few hours. Economists forecast the number to reach 3.89 million in February, compared to 3.91 million in January.
Investors will also be closely monitoring Oracle’s ( ORCL ) fiscal third-quarter results, after the market closes. Wall Street anticipates strong sales growth for the year, albeit at a slower pace than in previous quarters. Market participants will be looking for updates on Oracle and OpenAI’s scaling plans to expand their data center projects in Texas.
US rate futures are priced at a 97.3% chance of no rate change and a 2.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note is at 4.13%, +0.80% up.
The Euro Stoxx 50 index is +2.43% higher this morning as US President Donald Trump hinted that the Iran war could be nearing an end, boosting sentiment. Bank stocks rose on Tuesday. The travel stock also went up. Energy storage was the only downside, reflecting the decline in oil prices. German exports fell by more than a year and a half in January, data released on Tuesday showed, following declines in industrial orders and output as momentum in Europe’s biggest economy weakened earlier in the year. Meanwhile, European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Mueller said on Tuesday that the central bank’s next move is likely to be rate hikes, but there is no need to rush into any decision. Investors are now turning their attention to speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Luis de Guindos scheduled for later in the day. In corporate news, Volkswagen AG (VOW3.D.DX) rose +3% after the German automaker suggested a margin recovery after a challenging 2025.
German export figures were released today.
German January exports fell -2.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of -2.0% m/m.
Asian stock markets settled in the green today. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) rose +0.65% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) rose +2.88%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed higher today, reflecting a regional recovery as investors became more optimistic that the Middle East conflict would soon end after comments from US President Donald Trump. Technology and new energy stocks performed well on Tuesday. Sentiment was also buoyed by favorable trade data from the country. The General Administration of Customs said on Tuesday that during the period of January and February, China’s exports have increased more than expected, which has provided strength to the world’s second largest economy. Exports to Southeast Asia and the European Union increased at the start of the year, while shipments to the United States fell 11% year-on-year, but that was an improvement from last year’s 20% decline. Trade data also signaled a temporary rebound in domestic demand as imports rose in the first two months of the year. Notably, China combines key economic indicators for January and February each year to smooth out distortions caused by the change in the time of the Lunar New Year, which generally dampens activity. Xi Wei Zhang of PaintPoint Asset Management said China’s continued export strength could delay the start of additional economic stimulus. In other news, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday that China’s fiscal deficit is expected to narrow slightly to 7.3% of GDP in 2026 from 7.6% in 2025 as policy stimulus eases. In corporate news, Contemporaneous Imprex Technologies +5% after the world’s largest EV battery maker posted strong profits through 2025.
China’s January-February trade balance was $213.62 billion, stronger than expectations of $177.4 billion.
China’s January-February exports rose +21.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +7.1% y/y.
China’s Jan-Feb imports rose +19.8% y/y, stronger than expectations of +6.3% y/y.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index closed higher today, recovering from Monday’s sell-off as oil prices fell after President Trump said the war with Iran would end “very soon.” Japan imports about 90% of its oil from the Middle East, whose economy has been hit particularly hard by rising prices and supply disruptions. However, with the Middle East conflict still not resolved, “Japan’s stock market will remain volatile in the short term,” warned Navya Oshikobo, whose Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Bank Corp. chip and AI-related stocks were the biggest gainers on Tuesday. Industrial and mining stocks also rose. In addition, bank stocks advanced, benefiting from a positive revaluation as investors largely anticipated a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in June. Revised data from the Cabinet Office on Tuesday showed Japan’s economy grew faster than initially estimated in the fourth quarter, driven by strong business investment. The data is likely to reinforce the BOJ’s position to continue tightening policy, although uncertainty from the Middle East conflict adds a layer of unpredictability. Governor Kazu Oda said last week that the central bank will assess the impact of developments in the Middle East and adjust rates accordingly. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday that he hoped the central bank would work closely with the government to achieve the 2% inflation target, driven by wage growth rather than cost-cutting pressures. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -42.89% to 32.55.
Japan’s Q4 annualized GDP rose to +1.3% q/q from the initial estimate of +0.2% q/q.
Japan’s January household spending unexpectedly fell -2.5% m/m and -1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
Pre-market US stock movers
Super Seven stocks hit highs in pre-market trading, with Tesla ( TSLA ) up more than +1% and Amazon.com ( AMZN ) up around +0.5%.
Chip stocks advanced in premarket trading, with Lam Research ( LRCX ) rising around +2% and Micron Technologies ( MU ) gaining more than +1%.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( HPE ) rose nearly +2% in pre-market trading after the IT company reported better-than-expected FQ1 adjusted EPS and issued above-consensus FQ2 revenue guidance.
US-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM) gained about +0.7% in premarket trade after the world’s largest contract chipmaker said revenue rose 30% year-on-year in the first two months of 2026, supported by strong global AI demand.
Energy stocks fell in pre-market trading, with WTI crude oil falling more than -4%. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is down -2% and Exxon Mobil (XOM) is down more than -1%.
You can see more Pre-market stock movers over here
Today’s US earnings signal: Tuesday – March 10th
Oracle (ORCL), AeroVironment (AVAV), Uranium Energy (UEC), ABM Industries (ABM), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Cadre Holdings (CDRE), Kohl’s (KSS), Kodiak AI (KDK), Stagwell (STGW), IDT Corporation (IDT), Willis Lees (Natural Finance), Willis Lees (Natural Finance) KalVista Pharmaceuticals (KALV), Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV), Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR), loanDepot (LDI), Pangea Logistic Solutions (PANL), ADC Therapeutics (ADCT), Groupon (GRPN), Priority Technology Holdings (PRTH), Nature’s Labs (BNTR), Global Products (BNTR), Compensation Group, LLC (GBLI), SIGA Technologies (SIGA), Valhi (VHI), Westrock Coffee Company (WEST), Concrete Pumping Holdings (BBCP), Shoulder Innovations (SI), Citizen (CIA), SuRo Capital (SSSS), Inspired Entertainment (INSE), US Corporate Tax (INSEMO), US Corporate Tax (INSEMO), Corporate Tax. Molding Technologies (CMT), Apyx Medical (APYX), KVH Industries (KVHI).
As of the date of publication, Oleksandr Pilipenko had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
