Spot Solana ETFs have gained about $1.45 billion since their July launch, though SOL is down 57% over the same period, a combination that Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas called “about as bad as you’ll see in ETFs.” For crypto markets, transmission is not just a headline flow number, but what it says about the depth and quality of institutional demand.
Spot Solana ETFs beat Bitcoin ETFs
Balchunas argued that the stability of these currents is as important as their size. “The ETFs are down 57% year-to-date since they launched in July … but they’ve managed to not only collect $1.5 billion in flows, but actually not surrender any of it,” he said at X. He added that “50% of assets are from 13F filers = serious inv base. Both are really good signs for the future IMO.”
The chart he shared shows that the cumulative flow of the Solana ETF rose from about $410 million from October 23, 2025, to $1.45 billion on March 2, 2026. The sharpest acceleration was seen in late October through November, when aggregate imports surged past the $1 billion mark in March. Even with some flattening at the end of the cycle, the broader pattern is one of constant net consumption rather than a loss of hot money.
Balchunas’ more provocative point was the relative comparison with Bitcoin. “The other thing about these flows, if we match the size of the solana vs bitcoin mkt cap, that equates to $54 billion in net new flows, which is almost double what bitcoin was at the same point,” he said. “And bitcoin is up a ton and down 57% in that time. Still, pretty impressive numbers considering the size and condition of the original mkt.”
This comparison goes to the heart of the thesis. Absolute flows still dominate Bitcoin, whose U.S.-based ETF complex has about $94.6 billion in assets, according to Balchunas’ chart, which he published separately. BlackRock’s IBIT alone is worth about $57.1 billion, while Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC are worth about $13.9 billion and $11.5 billion, respectively. On Wednesday, the group received another $461.77 million, with IBIT contributing $306.58 million.
But Balchunas used the same illustration of Bitcoin’s flow to make a broader point about the dangers of drawing sweeping conclusions from short windows of market action. After noting that Bitcoin was up 12% after the Iran strike while gold was down, he deliberately asked the question: “So does this mean that gold has failed as a safe haven and may have no purpose, and vice versa for btc?” He then responded to this in the next post.
“I don’t really think so BTW, just trying to point out the problem with making these kinds of bullish judgments about assets based on a short window of price action,” Balchunas said. “Gold has my respect as an asset, as does bitcoin. The rise of Bitcoin may have little to do with geopolitics, but rather Jane St bogeyman going and changing moods. And Ppl selling gold can only profit, some may be looking for the next Btc run, you know.”
The same logic applies to Solana. A 57% decline would normally be a backdrop that would be expected to suppress ETF demand rather than sustain it. Instead, Solana’s product appears to have attracted sticky capital and, at least in Balchunas’s framework, it has done so at a rate that compares to Bitcoin once market context is applied.
At press time, Solana was trading at $87.26.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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