SOL’s Solana (SOL) is 72% off its high of $295 and well below the $188 seen when spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were launched in October 2025.
At the same time, Solana’s onchain volume and earnings metrics continue to rank higher than competitors, raising questions about whether SOL’s long-term price outlook is headed for a return to its highs.
The resistance of the SOL ETF is consistent with the use of the network
The Spot SOL ETFs launched in late October 2025 and averaged more than $100 million in net inflows during their first five weeks. Since December 2025, weekly inflows have decreased, averaging between $20 million and $25 million, as the SOL price fell to $86 in February 2026.
For the quarter, the exit collection was just $11.3 million in two weeks. Spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, by contrast, recorded four consecutive months of negative flows over the same period.
The performance of the Solana network tells a different story than its price. Over the past 30 days, Solana has handled $108 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, ahead of Ethereum’s $63.7 billion and Base’s $31.48 billion. Volumes reached $117 billion in January, which is also higher for the chain than in December and November. The weekly average from January 2025 has been between 20 and 25 billion dollars.
In the last 24 hours, Solana generated $3.1 million in app revenue, compared to Ethereum’s $2.95 million. Active addresses were 2.17 million compared to 682,236, while on-chain fees reached $722,706 compared to Ethereum’s $356,438.
Solana’s RWA sector also hit a record high of $1.71 billion, up 45% in 30 days, but Ether holds $15 billion of the industry’s $25.37 billion distributed asset value.
Related: ETH’s next big move depends on daily close above $2.1K: Info
SOL support cluster and assessment gap
Trader Crypto Scient has identified two macro zones that could form potential bottoms. First, the 0.75 Fibonacci retracement zone is between $60 and $70, a level associated with a deeper retracement in a major bullish range.
The second is the weekly fair value demand gap (FVG) of $22 to $29, a pre-liquidity disparity zone that preceded the explosive rally to $200 from $25.
Currently, the structure is limited as the price is below the weekly resistance of $120.
On the weekly chart, SOL has already tested the demand zone from $51 to $80, which is consistent with this reversal pocket and may go for a recovery from its current price.
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data adds context. Over 6% of supply has recently moved within the current price cluster, creating a tight cost base zone. The next significant concentration, over 3% of the supply, is between $20 and $30.
From a valuation point of view, SOL is near the practical supply cluster, while ETF positioning is unopened and DEX turnover leads other chains despite lower total locked-in value (TVL).
Price compression along with continued capital inflows and increasing network usage shows a measurable gap between performance and valuation.
Whether this divergence is resolved through SOL price action will depend on how the $51 to $80 resistance level and the $120 resistance level interact with these factors in the coming months.
Related: Solana Leads Crypto Recovery With 10% Gains: Is $100 SOL the Next?
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