Ships passing, waiting or diverting voyages

Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has sparked fears of the worst disruption to global oil supplies in history, as the Middle East conflict extends into its third week.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, compared with more than 100 ships daily before the conflict, Feb. The blockade has pushed shipping traffic to a trickle, with only 21 tankers plying the route since the war began on the 28th.

Most of the ships appear to have positions outside Hormuz, with thousands of sailors trapped on ships in the Gulf. Some have explored pivoting to disperse to alternative ports.

According to a report by maritime intelligence agency Windward on Sunday, around 400 ships were spotted operating in the Gulf of Oman, with a huge backlog of ships waiting near the checkpoint.

Although Iran has kept a tight grip on the strait, a small number of other ships have passed through on various occasions, signaling that Tehran is opting for some non-Iranian oil cargoes to negotiate safer voyages, according to maritime analysts.

Here’s a look at some of the countries that have had their ships through the critical energy route since the war began.

Tehran has largely avoided targeting vessels linked to China. According to Windward, dozens of ships broadcasting AIS – automatic identification system – destinations refer to Chinese ownership or crew presence while operating in the Gulf.

“This pattern suggests the possibility of an informal access filter, where ships indicating Chinese ownership or crew may be trying to signal neutrality or avoid being targeted in the current conflict environment,” Windward analysts said in a report last week.

Beijing is reportedly in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas carriers to pass through the strait. Iran has continued to ship millions of barrels of crude oil to China since the war began.

From March 1 to March 15, a total of 11 China-linked ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, mostly general cargo ships, but tankers operated by mainstream Chinese owners still missed the route. Earlier this month, Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping suspended all new bookings to ports and routes in the Middle East.

Yet a ship broadcasting its Chinese affiliation does not always guarantee safe passage.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, a Chinese-owned ship was hit by shrapnel while sailing from the Middle East Gulf to Jebel Ali, United Arab Emirates on March 12, broadcasting by AIS.

A Greek shipowner run by Athens-based Dynacom Tankers Management was among the first mainstream operators to test the route.

The Liberia-flagged Suezmax tanker Shenlong, operated by Dynacom, transited the strait around March 8, carrying approximately one million barrels of Saudi crude oil to anchorage in Mumbai.

Another oil tanker, Smyrni, carrying Saudi crude, also transited the waterway last week and docked in Mumbai.

Lloyds List Intelligence said it was not yet clear whether Smyrna was allowed safe passage as it was a cargo bound for India.

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar described the country’s direct talks with Tehran as productive. “I have engaged in talks with them at the moment and my talks have yielded some results,” he told the Financial Times earlier this week.. “If it gives me results, I’ll naturally continue to look at it.”

Two Indian ships carrying liquefied petroleum gas or LPG under the Shipping Corporation of India were also cleared for shipment, one arriving on Sunday and the second expected on Tuesday.

About 22 vessels carrying crude, LPG and liquefied natural gas are anchored in the strait, awaiting confirmation of safe passage, CNBC has learned.

On Monday, a Pakistan-flagged Aframax tanker loaded with crude from Abu Dhabi became the first confirmed non-Iranian cargo ship to transit the chokepoint when it broadcast its location, Kpler’s ship-tracking intelligence unit, Marine Traffic, said.

It shows that “selected shipments may receive a negotiated safe route.”

Turkish officials confirmed that the Turkish-owned ship had been allowed to sail after calling at an Iranian port, although 14 additional Turkish-owned ships were awaiting clearance.

But the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to global energy flows as Tehran continues its sporadic attacks on shipping.

Maritime analysts said the attacks on ships in the Gulf appeared “random” and lacked a pattern, aimed at sowing confusion and disruption rather than targeting specific national profiles or ship types.

According to the International Maritime Organization, at least 16 ships were hit in waters near the UAE’s Fujairah port, Iraq’s Khor Al Jubair port and the Gulf of Oman.

According to Windward, several of the vessels targeted had Western or Gulf-state connections.

Other affected vessels include vessels arriving from Thailand, Vietnam and Brazil, which “suggests a broader targeting of dense commercial shipping lanes rather than a narrow focus on one nationality or operator class,” Windward analysts said.

The attacks followed no clear pattern, said Bridget Deakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence, which “makes things difficult for people trying to plan any shipment, because they can’t work out what the rationale is for one ship to hit another,” she told CNBC in a telephone interview.

Shipowners have scrambled to secure alternative routes, emergency ports or inland transport networks, setting up a cascade of congestion at secondary hubs in the region.

When the war began, according to Kpler, about 81 container ships were tied up in ports along the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, 43 have rerouted to other Gulf ports, with the remainder diverted from the region entirely.

Cargo is redirected to ports outside the strait, mainly Fujairah and Khor Fakkan in the UAE and Sohar in Oman, before being moved to their destinations by truck.

— CNBC’s Seema Modi contributed to this report.