Shipping market recovery ‘completely’

A monthly report that gauges sentiment among supply chain managers said February provided further evidence “that the freight market’s long-term recovery is accelerating.”

The Logistics Managers Index — a spread index in which a reading above 50 indicates expansion while below 50 indicates a contraction — returned a reading of 41 for transportation capacity in February. That was 6 percentage points lower than in January and equal to November 2021 — “the peak of the Covid shipping boom.”

The pressure on capacity was widespread but particularly pronounced in large firms (1,000 employees or more), which reported a contraction rate of 32.6.

Severe winter storms in December and January temporarily reduced capacity. However, carriers and 3PLs point to higher regulatory enforcement as the driving force behind market consolidation.

“The demand is clearly there, though,” Tuesday’s report said. “FreightWaves flatbed tender rejection rate exceeds 32% for second time in its eight-year history.” (The data set currently stands at 46%.)

This is likely an indicator of increased upstream activity in the supply chain’s productivity levels, the report said.

Freightwaves dry vane data also shows significant capacity strengthening, maintaining high readings during the seasonally weak part of the year.

Sonar: Vaughan Outbound Bid Rejection Index (VOTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for truck capacity, the tender rejection index shows the number of dry van loads rejected by shippers. Current bid rejections reflect a tight truckload market. For more information on Sonar, click here.

Transportation usage (61.9) rose 3.8 points in February to its highest reading since May 2022, and “a far cry from September 2025 when this metric even broke 50.0.”

Transportation prices (76.7) rose 5.2 points to a level not seen in four years. Price perception among the top companies (79.7) increased by more than 11 points compared to the indicators from the bottom retailers.

“It is not clear whether changes in tariff policy or the possibility of an escalation in international disputes could affect things.” The report said. “However, for the moment, higher exchange rates pushed in part by tariffs have led to the strongest shipping market in four years.”

Looking ahead, logistics managers expect these conditions to continue and even intensify. Transportation prices are expected to expand significantly over the next 12 months, with respondents returning a forecast reading of 80.3, a level that would be the fastest rate of expansion since the market peaked in March 2022. Transport capacity is expected to remain contractionary at 44.9.

“If these predictions hold, it will mark a real shift towards a growing transport market.”

SONAR: National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only – NTIL.USA) For 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). NTIL is based on average booked space dry van loads of 250,000 lines. NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot prices excluding oil. Spot prices have increased during the peak season as new restrictions have been imposed on the driver pool. Harsh winter weather has kept prices high in recent weeks amid a backdrop of tight capacity.

The overall LMI stood at 61.5 in February, up 1.9 points from January. This is the highest reading in a year and the third highest number in the last four years.

Inventory levels (53.8) were down 10 basis points respectively, with the rest expanding only moderately. Small firms (60) reported expansion while large firms (44.6) said business levels contracted.

Inventory costs (67.8) decreased by 3.5 points but inflation remained. Companies continue to mitigate high interest rates and reduce warehouse rents through only-in-time strategies, potentially leaving them “more vulnerable to disruptions.”

Warehouse capacity (50) again remained neutral in February. Warehouse utilization (60.3) increased 5.9 points and was 17.4 points higher than in December, when inventory levels fell to the lowest level in the dataset’s nine-year history. Warehouse prices (62.6) remained inflationary, but growth slowed by 2.1 points sequentially.

Prologis (NYSE: PLD ) said in January that the warehouse market is reflecting. The industrial REIT’s 2026 guidance calls for modest improvement in occupancy across the industry as facility deliveries slow, allowing rents to rise modestly.

The LMI is a collaboration between Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Florida Atlantic University, Rutgers University and the University of Nevada, Reno, conducted in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.

Other Fretviews articles by Todd Maiden:

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