Russian leaders say they are shocked by the way the United States and Israel launched a sudden attack on Iran last weekend, deliberately killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of a sovereign state.
But so far, they have offered few indications of how they plan to respond to the mix of consequences that become more irreversible with each passing day.
The war threatens another of the Kremlin’s key allies in the Middle East. It has also fueled an already growing distrust within Russia toward President Donald Trump, especially after the United States and Israel began their campaign while nuclear negotiations with Iran were ongoing. But at the same time, by destabilizing the oil trade in the Persian Gulf, the war is also providing Russia with an unexpected blessing: rising oil prices, which will only benefit the country’s oil and gas trade.
Why do we write this?
Russia stands by as the United States and Israel wage war against Iran. But the conflict is crystallizing Russian views on President Donald Trump and may change the way the Kremlin deals with the White House.
Whatever happens, what Russia will not do is intervene directly, despite having signed a strategic partnership with Iran just last year.
After last summer’s 12-day war in which the United States and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, President Vladimir Putin told reporters that not only did Russia’s relationship with Iran not include any mutual defense obligations, but the Iranians had shown no interest in the idea. Asked how he would react if Israel killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Putin brushed aside the question and said, “I don’t even want to discuss that possibility.”
However, the Washington Post reported on Friday that Russia is providing intelligence to Iran about the location of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East.
Andrei Klimov, an official with the ruling United Russia Party, says Russia condemns “unprovoked aggression” against Iran and will express its views at the United Nations Security Council. But “this is not our war,” he says. “We did not initiate it and we did not participate in it. In fact, we are willing to help resolve the situation through diplomatic and other channels.”
Changing influence in the Middle East
From a foreign policy perspective, the war in Iran is worrying for Russia. Moscow has already seen the overthrow of its former client in Syria, Bashar al-Assad, but the loss of Iran would be far more damaging to Russia’s strategic interests and regional credibility.
Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP/File
If the United States succeeds in installing a pro-American government in Tehran, it could threaten Russia’s already waning influence in the South Caucasus, its own backyard. Some analysts paint a nightmare scenario for the Kremlin, in which a resurgent United States led by Donald Trump reestablishes its unchallenged hegemony in the Middle East and elsewhere.
“After Syria, Venezuela and now Iran, no one knows who will be next,” says Vladimir Sotnikov, an independent political expert based in Moscow. “What if the United States keeps going, reshaping the world in its own image? If this operation against Iran succeeds, it will be a serious blow to Russian interests in the Middle East.”
But over the past year, skillful Russian diplomacy managed to salvage Moscow’s influence in Syria and was even able to maintain its military bases in the country. Some analysts say the economic and geopolitical synergies between Russia and Iran are deep and could well outlast a radical regime change. On the other hand, if the United States does not achieve its objectives in Iran, Russia could be in a good position to mediate.
“Russia could be of great help, both for Iran and for the United States,” if Trump wants to find a way out of the situation, Sotnikov says. Russia played an important role in the multilateral negotiations that resulted in the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal. It built the country’s civil nuclear station and to this day has hundreds of workers integrated into Iran’s program. “It’s too early to say whether this will be a disaster for Russia or something else.”
Silver linings?
The silver lining, from Moscow’s point of view, is that oil and gas prices – Russia’s main source of export revenue – began to soar on international markets almost immediately after the war began. They could rise further if Iran manages to close the vital Strait of Hormuz. About a fifth of the world’s supply of those products flows through that waterway off Iran’s southern coast. India, which had been abandoning purchases of Russian oil at Washington’s urging, quickly began reconsidering its plans as market supply dwindled.
American weapons arsenals, especially equipment that is vital to Ukraine’s defense against Russian airstrikes, were already under strain. Russian experts now say that since the United States and Israel are burning much of this weaponry in the fight against Iran, such changes in priorities will greatly favor Russia.
“At least in the short term, there are many factors that look positive for Russian interests,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy magazine. “Americans are distracted, Europeans are confused, and military supplies to Ukraine are diminished.”
But Russian leaders have expressed dismay at the way the war in Iran was launched amid negotiations that many reports said were showing progress. And Putin condemned the assassination of the supreme leader as a “cynical” murder.
“Khamenei’s assassination exceeds what was previously considered normal behavior,” Lukyanov says. “We used to take for granted the immunity of the legitimate leaders of a state, a member of the UN, people who you need to be able to talk to. Not anymore. We have never seen anything like this before.”
No more illusions
The thaw in U.S.-Russian relations that began a year ago with U.S.-sponsored peace talks over Ukraine may not be dead, but it has been hit hard, says Dmitry Suslov, an expert at the Moscow Higher School of Economics.
“We see that no matter what the United States declares, its policy is aggressive and aims to impose American hegemony. Trump declared himself against intervention and yet he has become an arch-interventionist,” he says. “We have seen that, for the United States, the negotiations are false, just a ruse to provide cover to prepare military actions. The United States cannot be trusted.”
Russia and China could become closer as a result of this war, Suslov says. The two countries’ political statements on the war are almost identical. The incentives for the two Eurasian giants to cooperate have increased significantly, including Russia’s importance as a reliable supplier of energy and resources to China. Both are likely to intensify their outreach to the Global South, including their leadership in the BRICS economic partnership.
“The United States can take advantage of this situation to declare the BRICS a paper tiger. After all, they cannot help one of their own who is attacked,” says Suslov. “Russia will likely try to facilitate a more coordinated response, criticize actions and get countries in the global majority” to become more aligned.
But in Moscow there are no longer any illusions that Trump could turn out to be a friend of Russia, says Lukyanov.
“More people here are saying we’re really going to miss Joe Biden and his administration. They may have been anti-Russian, but at least they knew some limits. It doesn’t seem like Trump knows them.”
