Australia could reduce its dependence on foreign fuel by more than a billion liters a year if we replace 1 million petrol cars with electric vehicles, as experts say boosting the adoption of electric vehicles is part of ensuring the country’s long-term economic security.
Hussein Dia, professor of transport technology and sustainability at Swinburne University of Technology, said electric vehicles can play a significant role in improving Australia’s energy sovereignty, as well as contributing to the national net zero emissions goal.
“Each electric vehicle that replaces that vehicle effectively eliminates that demand for fuel and instead shifts energy consumption to electricity, which is largely produced domestically,” Dia said.
“That reduces exposure to global oil price shocks and improves the resilience of the transportation system. We don’t want to experience the same thing every few years.”
A typical gasoline car traveling 15,000 kilometers a year can consume approximately 1,150 liters of fuel, meaning that “even moderate penetration of electric vehicles can make a noticeable difference,” Dia said.
Replacing one million internal combustion engine cars with electric vehicles will not be a quick task. Today there are only about 420,000 electric vehicles on the road in a national fleet of around 20 million cars, or approximately 2%.
Diesel and gasoline cars consume about 25 billion liters of fuel per year, so replacing half of all vehicles with electric versions would reduce annual consumption by about 12 billion liters.
Dia emphasized that these were illustrative examples of the important role that greater adoption of electric vehicles can play in making the nation more resilient to future energy crises.
“These are big requests, but I think if there is a will, then I think it is doable,” Dia said.
The US-Israel war against Iran has triggered a global energy shock that has driven up unleaded petrol prices in major cities on Australia’s east coast to $2.30 a litre, or 30 to 40 cents higher in just two weeks, according to MotorMouth.
With diesel prices approaching $2.65 a liter or even higher in regional areas, Alison Reeve, director of the energy and climate change program at the Grattan Institute, said this year’s energy crisis could trigger a major shift in the way Australians and policymakers view electric vehicles.
New figures from the Australian Automobile Association showed petrol and diesel cars accounted for a record low two in three vehicle sales during the final three months of last year, down from 70% in the September quarter.
Gasoline prices in major East Coast cities are up 15 to 20% since the beginning of the month.
A study covering Scandinavian countries found that a 1% increase in gasoline prices was associated with an average 0.85% increase in EV sales, and that the pace of EV adoption was much more sensitive to gasoline prices than to electricity costs.
Matt Kean, chair of the Climate Change Authority, said the CEC had advised that transport electrification would reduce emissions and Australians’ exposure to global oil prices.
“Events are making that advice seem more prescient every day,” Kean said.
“March could be a record month for electric vehicle sales and it wouldn’t be surprising to see that momentum continue as motorists won’t easily forget the shockwaves from the Middle East.”
In this context, talks about the possibility of the government reducing incentives for electric vehicles in the next budget came at the worst time, Reeve said.
“We want to respond to the problem so that we don’t have the same problem in the future,” he said.
“You can be pretty sure there will be some geopolitical shock in the coming years, and it will always affect oil and gasoline prices.”
