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Macro investor Raul Pal says that the next two weeks could be decisive for the cryptocurrency market, arguing that widespread pessimism among traders could be ignoring powerful macroeconomic forces in the background.
In a market outlook, Pal said global liquidity remains the dominant macroeconomic driver of digital assets, citing a 90% correlation with Bitcoin and 97% with the Nasdaq‑100 Index since 2012.
Global liquidity is growing at around 10% annually and shows little sign of slowing, the investor noted. According to Pal, the Global Macro Investor Financial Condition Index has led liquidity for nearly six months and is still declining.
Raul Pal added that the recent “air pocket” in overall US liquidity, created when the flow of government funding was temporarily restricted, appears to have subsided three months ago and is accelerating again. Since this measure is leading crypto markets for about three months, a reversal could soon filter down into digital asset prices.
Pal also pointed to an accelerating business cycle, increased bank liquidity through an enhanced leverage ratio mechanism, US import tax refunds that expand bank balance sheets, and China’s expanding balance sheet as additional sources of liquidity. An expected decline in the US exchange rate could increase disposable income and risk.
 
In addition, Pal said the proposed CLARITY Act could open up participation for banks and asset managers seeking regulatory approval. Stablecoin issuance, which has expanded by nearly 50% in the past year, is growing rapidly, and the transaction volume is already in the trillions of dollars.
Pal believes that these factors coincide with an oversold crypto market dominated by fear and bullish signals in DeMark indicators on a daily and weekly basis. The analyst suggests that the trend is likely to change over the next two weeks if conditions stabilize.
Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap data shows the total crypto market capitalization is around $2.44 trillion, up 1.37%. Bitcoin is trading around $71,862, up 1.75% on the previous day. In comparison, Ethereum rose 2.19% to $2,120 after a significant on-chain accumulation of around $2.43 billion, driven by the influx of USD Coin. Ethereum is currently facing resistance from $2,020 to $2,050, while support is located near $1,980.
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