As Iran targets countries hosting US military bases across the Middle East with retaliatory strikes following a joint US-Israeli bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had a sharp message for Tehran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Read more LIVE: Iran fires retaliatory missiles at Israel, US bases after airstrike
“In light of the serious developments unfolding in the region, I once again call on all Lebanese to act with wisdom and patriotism, putting the interests of Lebanon and the Lebanese people above all considerations,” he said.
“I reiterate that we will not accept dragging the country into adventures that threaten its security and unity.”
As the world waits to see if Iran’s allies across the region will join the conflict that is already threatening to engulf the Middle East, France 24 spoke with Hossein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was the target of a US-Israeli attack
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France 24: Lebanon’s prime minister warned against dragging the country into military “adventures”, as he called it, in a message directed at Hezbollah. What is the risk of regional war?
This is remarkable. Among Iran’s assets – along with its own missiles and drones, naval forces and special forces that could be used to retaliate – are Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, these military groups operating and operating in various Middle Eastern countries.
I am the grandfather of Hizbollah who is based in Lebanon where I am now. But there are also various so-called al-Hashd al-Shaabi groups in Iraq, which are much newer and more chaotic and less organized. But they are still well equipped and pose a potential threat to various units, including American forces in Iraq.
Then there are the Houthis in Yemen, and you can add (the Palestinian militant group) Hamas to this list, but Hamas is only in the marriage of convenience. They are not Shiites; They weren’t on the same side in the Syrian war, for example, and so they weren’t really part of this network. But there are at least three major assets, particularly Hezbollah but also the Houthis and Iraqi groups, that Iran could seek to retaliate against the US and US-related interests, Arab interests, the interests of the Gulf states, Israel, etc.
FRANCE 24: Given how their capabilities have been degraded by recent Israeli operations, how much of a blow can groups like Hezbollah and Hamas deliver?
Hamas is often thrown into this mix, but I think I’m wrong. Hamas is not really part of this core group. That’s why it took Israel a year and a half to completely drag Hezbollah into the war that started with the Hamas attack against Israel (October 7, 2023) – and they dragged Hezbollah, because Hezbollah was trying to stay credible by doing some things they thought were at least necessary.
Hezbollah has deteriorated, but it remains armed. It remains viable. It remains a potential risk. The Houthis certainly do, and the Houthis are not necessarily down. And the Houthis have demonstrated the ability to attempt to attack Israel or neighboring Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their ability to disrupt and harass shipping in the Gulf region, in the Gulf of Aden, in the Straits of Bab al-Mandab, in the Red Sea, etcproved to be very important.
Read moreWe know about the US-Israeli joint airstrikes on Iran
At the end of last year they began to back off – they stopped harassing shipping and the Americans routinely bombarded them, and even the Israelis made a tacit agreement with the United States. So it is in effect. But of course, this is an important moment for Hezbollah and the Houthis to unleash themselves on behalf of the Iranians and perhaps at their behest and behest.
However, the Houthis have their own agenda. Hezbollah and Iraqi groups are in the service of Iran. If Iran insists that they act, even though it would be a crazy thing from Lebanon’s point of view – even if it would be a disaster for Lebanon again – I think Hezbollah will probably have to act if the Iranians absolutely insist. And vice versa: if the Iranians absolutely insist that they won’t act, even if they want to, they probably won’t. They are a wholly owned subsidiary. This applies to most groups in Iraq. This is less true with the Houthis and less true with Hamas.
(tags to translate)Middle East
