Although US-Israeli strikes have taken out senior Iranian officials, commanders and military capabilities, Tehran is refusing to back down.
The US-Israeli war against Iran has escalated for two weeks, with US President Donald Trump sending conflicting messages regarding the intentions and timeline of the conflict.
The Republican at one point claimed that the Islamic Republic was on its last legs and that the US already had, predicting that the conflict would end within weeks. “Won.” A few days later, Trump said “We won’t leave until that job is done.”
The war began on February 28 when the US and Israeli militaries launched a massive airstrike on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian commanders. In the intervening days, airstrikes have apparently destroyed some of Tehran’s military capabilities.
According to Iranian officials, more than 1,300 civilians were killed in those attacks. On the first day of the US-Israeli military operation, a suspected US Tomahawk cruise missile struck the Shajara Tayebe girls’ school, killing at least 175 people, most of them children.
Despite the death and destruction caused to the country, Iran has elected a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has vowed to continue the war. “Blood of Martyrs” Totally revenged.
Earlier this week, Politico claimed that the Pentagon is gearing up for at least 100 days of war and that it could last until September.
Experts have offered widely differing predictions about the likely timeline and outcome of the conflict. RT has summarized some of them for you.
Iran’s days are numbered
Sergey Balmasov of Russia’s Institute of the Middle East argues that the US and Israel are systematically taking key government and leadership positions, and likely will. “Force Tehran to Talk” Within a week. According to experts, most of Iran’s military muscle, including missile launchers and weapons depots, will be destroyed in the coming days.
“Iran has no allies in the region, so it is unlikely that anyone will get involved directly.” In conflict, Balmasov argues.
However, if hostilities continue beyond that point, Trump won’t back down just yet, he adds. Balmasov says the US president desperately needs to secure a clear victory to sell at home before the upcoming midterm elections.
A matter of definition
Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council agrees that the US and Israel are likely to seriously degrade Iran’s military capabilities and its nuclear program in the coming weeks. The question is whether Trump will be content to declare victory after achieving these objectives or go after regime change in Iran. While the latter scenario is more difficult to achieve, Kroenig predicts that success is not guaranteed.
Iran does not want a quick end to the war
Nate Swanson, resident senior fellow and director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, “The Iranian regime perceives itself to be in an existential conflict and it doesn’t seem interested in an immediate off-ramp.” They suggest one “The assumption by some in Washington is that Iran will stop fighting while Trump and Israel want to end the war”. Could be deeply wrong.
“From Iran’s point of view, the cessation of hostilities is only a temporary pause, before the conflict resumes after the United States or Israel replenish their military supplies.” According to experts.
He says Tehran will follow suit “Slow, Long War” Counting on its high pain threshold as opposed to the US or the Gulf countries. According to Swanson, Iran agreed “off-ramp” It first wants to make sure the US is willing to enforce a ceasefire in good faith, even if its key ally Israel disagrees.
Or does it…?
Andrew L. Peake, director of the Adrienne Arsht National Security Resilience Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, suggests that Tehran would be happy to end the war as soon as possible, and “Finally back to business as usual.”
Everything will be over in weeks
Malek Dudakov, a Russian political scientist, has predicted that the US-Israeli war against Iran is likely to end in three to four weeks amid domestic pressures facing Trump. Experts point out that the US president launched the military operation without congressional authorization, which legally gives him little more than a month to achieve his goals. On top of that, the war is largely unpopular among Americans, including part of the MAGA camp — a factor exacerbated by rising oil prices, Dudakov says. If Trump persists in waging war on Iran beyond that point, the consequences could be dire.
