-
Pool (POOL) is at $213.66, down 39% on the year, with an analyst target of $266.09 (up 25%). Leslie’s (LESL) fell 95% to $0.95 with negative equity of $489.85M.
-
Poole’s Q4 decline was driven by operating expenses that rose 6% while revenue fell, but analysts had expected a 39% decline due to expanding margins and housing returns.
-
An analyst named NVIDIA just named his top 10 AI stocks in 2010. Get it for free here.
Pool Corporation (NASDAQ: Pol) as of March 6, 2026 sits at $213.66, while the average analyst price target sits at $266.09. That’s a gap of about 25% that has been bridged just to reach consensus. But zoom out and the story gets more interesting: The stock is down 39% in the past year from $351.23, and it’s now trading near its 52-week low of $210.67. The disconnect between where a stock is trading and where analysts think it belongs is hard to ignore.
Pool Corporation is the world’s largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and outdoor living products. With 456 sales centers globally, it sits at the center of a distribution network that connects manufacturers with pool builders, contractors, and retailers. It’s not a bright business, but it’s a dominant one. And that dominance is precisely why Wall Street hasn’t given up on it even though the stock has nearly halved from its highs.
The most recent selloff accelerated after Poole Corp. reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 19, 2026. The headline numbers were bad. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.84 versus the $0.98 estimate, a decrease of nearly 14%. Revenue of $982.21 million missed consensus of $999.16 million and was down 0.5% year over year.
READ: The analyst named NVIDIA in 2010 Just naming his top 10 AI stocks
The deeper problem was not the top line. This was the cost structure. Operating expenses increased 6% to $243.74 million, driven by higher employee costs, technology investments, and the opening of a Greenfield sales center. This led to a 14% year-over-year operating income drop of $52.01 million. For the full year, operating cash flow fell 44.5% to $365.85 million, largely because management pre-purchased inventory ahead of anticipated price increases, sending inventory down 13% to $1.45 billion.
The arc through 2025 tells the story: Q1 lost on air, Q2 stabilized, Q3 showed real recovery with positive earnings growth, then Q4 barely recovered. A pattern of spending growing faster than income is a central concern that the market is pricing in. Add in a consumer sentiment reading of 56.4 as of January 2026, which economists classify as recessionary territory, and you understand why raising the discretionary pool remains under pressure.
Despite the sale, Wall Street has not abandoned Poole Corp. Out of 14 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it a buy, 8 rate it a hold, and only 1 gives it a strong sell rating. This is a cautious constructive stance, not fear. The average price target of $266.09 means that most analysts believe that the current price represents significant downside.
Bell’s case rests on several distinct pillars. First, gross margins are actually improving. Gross margin expanded 70 basis points to 30.1% in Q4, suggesting the core distribution business is healthy even if operating costs are hot. Second, management’s 2026 EPS guidance of $10.85 to $11.15 implies normalized earnings growth from $10.73 in full-year 2025. It’s not exciting, but it does indicate that a bottom may be forming. Third, CEO Peter D. Irwin noted on the earnings call that the company was “encouraged by improving trends for discretionary products in the second half of the year, even with continued consumer pressures.”
Analysts also closely monitor housing starts data. December 2025 housing starts came in at an annualized 1.40 million units, rebounding from October’s low of 1.27 million. New pool construction lags behind housing activity, so the stability of the housing market is a significant leading indicator of Pool Corporation’s new construction revenue. The maintenance aspect of the business, which is optional, does not provide a stable floor.
Current status:
-
Current price: $213.66
-
Objectives of the average analyst: $266.09
-
Opposite side: about 25%
-
Number of Analysts Covering: 14
-
1-year performance: 39.17% down
-
Year-to-date performance: 6.6% down
-
52-Week High/Low: $368.65 / $210.67
Breakdown of analyst ratings:
-
take on: 5
-
to keep: 8
-
Strong selling: 1
Key Valuation Indicators:
The stock is trading well below its 200-day moving average of $280.30 and is in a persistent decline. The consensus of hold-heavy analysts tells you that many on Wall Street aren’t knocking the table here, but they’re not calling it a value trap either. The only strong seller is outside. This split suggests a stock where the debate is about timing and macro recovery, not business model viability.
Contrast with Leslie (NASDAQ: LESL) is educational. Leslie’s, the pool and spa retailer, is down 95.24% over the past year and now trades at $0.95 with negative stockholders’ equity of $489.85 million and just $3.62 million in cash. Pool Corporation and Leslie are both in the pool industry, but they are not the same business. Pool Corporation is a distributor with a continuous network. Leslie is a struggling retailer in active recovery. The sector is under pressure, but not all players are equal.
Bull’s case centers on consumer sentiment that continues to return in the 2026 pool season to find a floor and a home. The maintenance business provides a non-discretionary revenue base that doesn’t disappear when customers tighten their belts, and gross margins actually expand even during downturns. The stock trading near a 52-week low with insider buying and a 25% gap to the analyst consensus has analysts watching the situation closely. The dividend yield of 2.27% is unchanged, but it represents real income for investors who are protected through recovery.
Beer’s case hinges on whether the operating cost problem is structural rather than transitory. Management is spending more on technology platforms like POOL360 and greenfield development precisely at a time when revenue is flat and cash flow is under pressure. If these investments do not produce measurable earnings in 2026, earnings guidance of $10.85 to $11.15 seems optimistic rather than conservative. A consumer sentiment reading of 56.4 is still in recessionary territory, and tariff uncertainty adds another layer of cost risk for businesses that source globally.
Analyst price targets are not guaranteed. They are informed opinions with a shelf life. But when a dominant business with a 40% one-year decline, insider buying near the bottom, and a 25% gap to consensus is sitting near a multi-year floor, it’s a situation analysts watch closely. Poole Corporation has historically been a dominant distributor in its niche. The question is whether 2026 is the year the recovery really shows in the numbers. This answer will determine whether today’s price looks like an opportunity or more patient waiting.
Wall Street is pouring billions into AI, but many investors are buying the wrong stocks. The analyst who first identified NVIDIA as a buyback in 2010 — before its 28,000% run — has identified just 10 new AI companies that he believes can deliver returns beyond that point. One dominates the $100 billion equipment market. Bill addresses the single biggest obstacle to maintaining AI data centers. The third segment is a net play in the optical network market that is quadrupling. Most investors haven’t heard of half of these names. Get a free list of all 10 stocks here.
