‘Nothing changes’: Four decades in power, Congo’s Ngusso wants new word | Election news

Brazzaville, Republic of the Congo – On main roads and public squares across the Congolese capital, posters featuring the seven main candidates running for president have been put up.

But at Moukondo Market in Brazzaville’s fourth district — amid lively discussions, people jostling for space and vendors trying to attract customers — most voters are less enthusiastic about this weekend’s election.

Fortune, a 27-year-old unemployed university graduate who did not want to give his last name, said he did not expect much from the election.

“When you see how money was spent during the campaign, you wonder if those in power really care about the living conditions of the population,” he said.

While Congo is the third largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, half of the country’s population, nearly six million people, live below the poverty line.

A few meters away, Gilbert, 44, shared similar sentiments. Civil servants explained that their salary was not sufficient for all their household expenses.

“I do odd jobs to supplement my income. At my age, it is almost suicidal to believe that these elections will change our daily lives,” he said.

“I’ve known the same hero practically my whole life,” Gilbert added. “Some call it stability, others say nothing changes.”

It’s a sentiment shared by many in the country: after 40 years under the same leader, political continuity is the norm.

President Denis Sassou Nguesso, 82, who is standing for re-election, first came to power in the Congo in 1979. After a period of political transition in the early 1990s, he returned to the presidency in 1997 after a civil war and has ruled the country without interruption since then.

Two major constitutional amendments marked his political trajectory. The 2002 constitution and the constitution adopted in 2015 significantly changed some of the eligibility requirements, allowing heads of state to continue running for office.

For Ngusso’s supporters, this political longevity is primarily due to the stability the country has managed to maintain in a region often marked by conflict.

Congo’s neighbors include the conflict-ridden Central African Republic; Gabon, which witnessed a coup in 2023; and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the government is facing armed groups, notably M23.

In official discourse, peace and institutional continuity are regularly presented as the main achievements of the Ngusso government.

However, several foreign observers painted a more nuanced picture of the political situation. The pro-democracy organization Freedom House classifies Congo as an “unfree” country while the Ibrahim Index of African Governance highlights limited progress in democratic participation and political accountability.

‘Asymmetric Political Competition’

In the last presidential election in 2021, official results gave Nguesso more than 88 percent of the vote and 67 percent of the vote.

Ngusso is expected to win again when the country goes to the polls on Sunday.

Some analysts say the president’s political longevity can be partly explained by the country’s political structure.

Congolese economist and public policy observer Charles Abel Kombo has described the political system as a hybrid model.

“The Congolese political system formally combines a multitude of institutions — elections, political parties, parliament — with a high degree of centralization of executive power,” he explained. “Ngusso’s political longevity can be partly explained by the formation of the institutional apparatus and the dominant role of the executive branch in the management of the state.”

According to him, the continuity of power is also associated with perceptions of stability in a country marked by conflicts in the 1990s.

“In this historical context, this continuity can be seen as an element of stability. But it is accompanied by asymmetric political competition.” In other words, political change is theoretically possible but politically difficult.

For economists, the issue is more than just political change.

“A central challenge remains the ability of political actors to propose a credible plan for economic transformation. Countries dependent on natural resources need a strategic position capable of diversifying their economies and guiding productive transformation.”

Other observers took a more critical view of this political longevity.

For economic and political analyst Alphonse Ndongo, the stability that officials often say should be carefully scrutinized.

“There is a truly stabilizing regime that has succeeded in keeping the peace. This is what is being sold as the main formula for success today: there is no war, so the country is peaceful. But this peace allows those in power to stay there. We are in a kind of democratic illusion where elections often resemble a pact,” he said.

According to him, the current political architecture makes a change in leadership unlikely in the short term.

“It is difficult for the institutions responsible for conducting the elections to produce a result different from what everyone already expects. Everything from voter registration to the organization of voting is structured. In these conditions, a surprise result is unlikely,” he said.

‘There are political alternatives’

As the debate over whether the country’s political continuity is a sign of stability or a system that is difficult to change continues in Congolese society, the opposition appears fragmented and weakened.

Some established parties are boycotting the polls while some key potential candidates are in jail or exile.

In June, opposition leader Clement Mierassa’s party was removed from the official list of recognized political parties.

For them, the conditions for a truly democratic election are not in place.

“We have always called for the necessary reforms: a truly independent National Electoral Commission, reliable voter lists and a law to control campaign spending,” he said. “Without these assurances, it is difficult to talk about free and transparent elections.”

However, other political actors have chosen to contest the elections.

Christ Antoine Wallembaud, spokesman for candidate Destin Meline Gavet, said participation remains a way to protect political space.

“The electoral system has flaws, but that doesn’t mean its participants condone fraud. Participation serves as a reminder of the need for reform and shows that a political alternative exists.”

For many observers, media access is an important issue during election campaigns.

“Access to public media remains a recurring problem for opposition candidates. The ruling party candidate always gets the lion’s share, even though the High Council for Freedom of Communication has established a list of appearances in state media so that all candidates can present their programs,” said a Congolese journalist who requested anonymity.

Facing these difficulties, opposition candidates turn to private media to spread their messages.

Congolese authorities, for their part, insisted that civil liberties be fully guaranteed to all.

Anatole Colinet Makosso, the prime minister and Nguesso’s spokesman, recently said that freedom of opinion and expression was “working very well”.

“Freedom of expression is alive and well in Congo. This is evidenced by the large number of foreign journalists reporting on this election. No journalist has been arrested or prosecuted because of their work,” he said.

For the government, this international media presence is a testament to the transparency of the electoral process and the ability of the media to work freely in the country.

However, some press freedom organizations present a different picture. In its World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders regularly highlights the difficulties local journalists face, particularly access to public information, political pressure and economic restrictions.

Adapting to situations

In Brazzaville’s working-class neighborhoods, reactions to Sunday’s election ranged from resignation to pragmatism.

In Bacango, a street youth explained that he learned to adapt to situations.

“When the country goes left, we go left, when it goes right, we go right, doing the opposite is dangerous,” he said, declining to give his name.

Beyond the political debate, economic concerns remain central.

The Congolese economy is heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for about 70 percent of its exports and about 40 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), according to the World Bank. This dependence exposes the country to fluctuations in international energy prices.

Public debt has reached high levels in recent years, exceeding 90 percent of GDP before partial restructuring under agreements with international creditors.

In this context, several economists say that the electoral stakes go beyond the single issue of political change.

Diversifying the economy, creating jobs, predominantly for the youth, and improving public services are key challenges in the coming years.

But many Congolese are not optimistic that Sunday’s election will make a difference to their material reality because political and economic power will remain in the same hands.

“We all understand the system of this country,” Fortune said. “The (financial) crisis doesn’t affect everyone, nor does poverty.”