No quick win will leave Trump scrambling to define success in Iran Donald Trump news

Editor’s Analysis

Trump faces challenges as Iran opposes talks following a military escalation and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

United States President Donald Trump enjoys looking unpredictable. But when it comes to military action against Iran, changing his message on the length of the conflict and the goals obscures his failure to achieve his obvious goal: the quick conclusion that he can declare victory.

Despite Saturday’s assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — a brazen act that has become a Trump trademark — and Iran’s heavy bombing campaign, the Islamic Republic’s leaders have publicly rejected the prospect of an immediate return to the negotiating table.

Instead, Iran is testing the will of its Gulf Arab neighbors with repeated attacks not only on US assets but also on civilian areas and threats to strike any ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The message from the Iranians is clear: they believe they are capable of fighting back and must impose some form of deterrence before any negotiations to stop the fighting.

So, with the state of Iran poised for a long fight, Trump finds himself in the kind of situation he has generally avoided in his two terms as president. That probably explains why he is inconsistent in his messaging.

Trump has said the war could end in days, but has also given five weeks or more. He has framed the struggle for the freedom of the Iranian people and in support of the country’s opposition, but has made it clear that he is happy to compromise with elements of the current state if they adhere to his conditions.

The contradictions mask the reality that Trump has no stomach for a long fight. During his tenure, Trump has been happy to use US military power to attack adversaries and threaten allies. But they have mostly done so when they could have secured a quick and easy victory, or retreated when it became clear that was not possible.

The military operation against Yemen’s Houthis last year is a testament to that. When it became clear that it would take months to completely degrade the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, Trump agreed to a deal in which the Houthis agreed to stop attacks on US ships even as the Yemeni group continued to attack Israeli interests.

A protracted conflict with Iran promises against a quick victory – more US casualties, global economic damage and failure to protect regional allies. For all the fighting Trump has spent little time trying to convince the US people to back down and it’s already unpopular.

Iran is down, but not out

Iran’s government is vulnerable after economic difficulties brought on in part by Western sanctions and protests in January that killed thousands. But air power alone has always been unlikely to topple a system that has entrenched itself across Iran for decades.

Instead, Trump prefers a scenario in Venezuela where the assassination of Khamenei is the US equivalent of the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, and other establishment figures step in at the behest of the US.

As of now, the Iranian government is not interested. If it starts negotiating now and makes a deal without establishing deterrence, Israel and the US believe they will find a new reason to attack in the foreseeable future, effectively taking the “lawn mowing” tactics used against Palestine to Iran.

There is good reason for Iranian fears – Trump himself has spoken about it. “I can go long and take the whole thing, or end it in two or three days and say to the Iranians: ‘See you again in a few years if you start rebuilding (your nuclear and missile programs)’,” he told news website Axios on Saturday.

All this ambiguity gives Trump the freedom to pivot and turn about war if he so chooses. The US president is more than willing to sell the assassination of Khamenei and images of destruction in Tehran and elsewhere if he decides the costs are too high.

The consequences, of course, will be disastrous for others: more chaos in the region, damage to assets and the image of allies at the center of the world economy, and the Iranian opposition, who promised more, could get even less.