Market participants were briefly relieved by the earlier seen rebound, but the shift in sentiment reinforced the view that the broader trend remains fragile. According to technical analysts, the current setup suggests that the market is still entering a challenging phase where selective opportunities exist, even as the broader indices struggle to sustain momentum.
Speaking to ET Now, Veena Rajani from HDFC Securities explained that despite the recent bounce, the broader trend for the Nifty remains bearish from a technical perspective.
“Last day’s recovery was satisfactory, but still the primary trend in Nifty is bearish as Nifty is holding below 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. So the positional trend is clearly on the bearish side. It’s just that we are trying to protect the recent lows from 03 and 24. The swing low is also 24,300-24,350 has been seen around, so there is a chance of recovery if we don’t break this level, but yes, it is currently moving in the whole range.
Rajani noted that while the benchmark index is struggling to generate consistent upside, the selling pressure is not uniform across sectors. Some pockets of the market are still showing resilience and even touching fresh highs.
“Some sectors are still doing well like defense, energy stocks, good investment stocks are doing very well. In fact, they have reached 52-week highs, which is also a good sign. So it’s not across the board selling in the market. Some stocks are still performing despite this general initial downtrend. So, yes, in trading you have to have very specific and specific sectors.”
He added that public sector companies continue to show strength in the charts, especially in the power and defense sectors. “And PSUs look very strong to us whether it’s PSU power stocks or PSU defense stocks. They look strong to us and we think that particular stock market will continue to grow. But yes, as far as Nifty is concerned, we have a serious downside risk of 430 for buyers.”
From a technical point of view, Rajani believes that the key level seen above is significantly higher, which could signal a meaningful change in the market trend.
“On the upside, Nifty should close above 25,000 to confirm a bullish trend reversal, otherwise, it will remain down overall and remain in consolidation until you break 24,300 again. So we are at a consolidation stage we can say. So we need to see that the primary trend is still in the right hand, so the market is still down. We should protect our long trades by losing the tight stop and For Nifty it should be 24,300.”
When asked about specific trading ideas in the current environment, Rajani pointed to selected PSU stocks that are exhibiting favorable technical setups.
“So, as I said, we are successful in PSU. So, one stock we like in defense space is India Electronics, around 471 can be a long, stop loss 464, target above should be 485. Second pick from PSU power space, NTPC looks good, 385 should be entry, 385 should be entry, 373 target should be 3735.”
With the lack of a clear directional trend in the market, analysts suggest that traders may remain disciplined with risk management and focus on stock-specific opportunities rather than broader index bets. In a market that oscillates between optimism and caution, technical levels such as Nifty’s 24,300 support and 25,000 resistance could play an important role in determining the next decisive move.
