Watching the season-opening Australian Grand Prix on Saturday night (Sunday afternoon in Melbourne) I had high expectations. I was expecting Aston Martin to retire early from the race to avoid causing physical harm to Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll. I expected a few retirements from the race due to reliability issues and the jank of the new car. I was expecting a George Russell win, and that alone was a comfortable win. To some extent, it all became a reality. Unfortunately, both Alonso and Stroll appeared to be retiring a few miles behind to conduct track testing. The graphics team certainly had fun writing “+12 laps” there. But being the idiot I am and the Ferrari fan I am, I didn’t expect the vintage Ferrari strategy shenanigans that further demoralized their traditional appearance on race day.
Before I talk about that, I have to apologize for the new rules. Because I wasn’t familiar with their games. From the moment the race started and after the new five-second pre-start routine, it was clear that this car had some real racing juice in it. This isn’t to say they’re faster than last season (they weren’t) or easier to drive (they weren’t), but wheel-to-wheel racing is much more viable, as is a driver closely following the car in front of him. Thanks to Charles Leclerc, who absolutely backed the start of the race (the Ferrari might not have the sheer power of the Mercedes on the straights, but off the line and in the corners it’s a monster in its own right), George Russell’s walk to presumptive P1 was completely delayed.
Leclerc expanded from fourth to first before the turn thanks to a perfect start and a clever weave past Isack Hadjar and Kimi Antonelli. Ahead of Russell, Leclerc used his car’s superior cornering to maintain the lead for longer than I expected, and even when Russell hit the passing battery and surged, Leclerc passed him right back on the next lap. This happened six times in the first nine laps of the race, with both drivers using the power of their respective cars at just the right time to regain the lead. When the passing parade came to a halt, Leclerc was ahead and Lewis Hamilton had also jumped up to third ahead of Russell. There were some thrilling moments of three-way racing on the lap ahead and it was a pleasure to watch. Then the virtual safety car came out and everything fell off the Ferrari red cliff.
The cause of the VSC was the first engine explosion of the season. On lap 11, Isack Hadjar’s Red Bull gave up on a fast section of the track and the second-year driver, who had been impressive all weekend in the damned second RB seat, pulled off the track to the left. Because he did not stop on the track itself, the VSC did enough to slow the pack and remove the car rather than require a full safety car, and he was allowed to slow down. almost Make sure everyone takes advantage of the cheaper pit stops (losing 10 seconds instead of 19). I say “almost” because Ferrari, in their infinite uh wisdom, decided not to pit either Leclerc or Hamilton. The latter sounded confused, and I have to side with the seven-time world champion here. Given that Mercedes has the fastest car in clean air, why not pit Russell and Antonelli when they do, putting pressure on at least one of the Ferrari drivers and hoping they can leave the Mercedes car behind when it can’t reach full power?
One way this Ferrari choice makes sense is the assumption that another VSC or full safety car will soon follow. This wasn’t a bad assumption. These new cars are a mess because everyone expected drastic regulatory changes. By the end of the race, six drivers had not finished. (Hadjar and Valtteri Bottas eventually joined Alonso and Stroll, while Nico Hulkenberg and Oscar Piastri, who hit the wall on their scouting lap to the grid, didn’t even technically start.) So I could understand why Ferrari chose to take the risk and use the starting medium tires that were still performing well. However, this left the team’s race to chance, and a few laps later, chance directly bit them in the butt.
Bottas, of the new Cadillac team, suffered engine problems at the end of the 19th lap, and although he managed to get off the track, he had to fix the problem just before entering the pit lane. This will start soon. After several cars pitted, the pit lane entrance was closed to allow Bottas’ car to move to safety. The Ferrari cleared the pits when the VSC was deployed and the pits were closed when both drivers returned. This is unfortunate. But this can also happen if a team doesn’t take advantage of the relatively free pit stops when they are first offered.
It would ultimately cost Ferrari his chance at victory and possibly a double podium. (After the race, Leclerc expressed his belief that third was close to what Ferrari could do, but it is difficult to say if that was true or if Leclerc was once again a company man.) After the Bottas-induced VSC, there was no longer a safety car of any kind during the race, and both Ferraris eventually had to pit under normal conditions. Leclerc pitted first and Hamilton soon followed after attempting to slow Russell down for a few laps. When the two drivers came out again, Russell was third by about 16 seconds, while Antonelli was third with about 8 seconds to spare on Leclerc. The gap will never close. This is best exemplified by how little the two Mercs were shown on the F1 TV broadcast during the second half of the race. They had a great drive on Sunday to top the podium, with Leclerc finishing third. (If there had been a few more laps, Hamilton would have surely passed his teammate; he finished fourth, just 0.6 seconds behind).
Therefore, we can expect positive results from the 2026 Australian Grand Prix when it comes to any kind of title fight. On any track with easy overtaking and high speeds like Australia’s, the Mercedes has to be a beast, especially if Ferrari continues to make its well-known strategic mistakes. but! Leclerc’s incredible start and effective defense of first place for most of the first third of the race bodes well for a track with tougher overtakes and more corners. A few great starts and a bit more defense could help Ferrari win the title this season. Even more so if they can figure out how to qualify right next to a Mercedes car. Even though Leclerc, Hamilton and the entire Scuderia will regret the mess they created for themselves in Melbourne, I think the team and fans of Ferrari and all sorts of drama can feel encouraged by how winnable this race could have been had Ferrari not done its job.
