One of Nasdaq’s options exchanges, Nasdaq MRX, has offered to offer cash-settled and binary contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Index, adding to the wave of Wall Street firms testing the waters of market prediction.
Nasdaq, the company behind the second-largest stock exchange by market capitalization, wants to offer “outcome options” for yes-or-no bets at prices ranging from 1 cent to $1, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.
The offering allows traders to take binary positions on events related to the Nasdaq-100 and Nasdaq-100 Micro – rather than outcomes related to other events such as sports, culture and politics.
Some of the notable stocks in the Nasdaq-100 include Nvidia ( NVDA ), Apple ( AAPL ), Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Google ( GOOGL ), Meta ( META ), and Tesla ( TSLA ).
SEC approval could see it enter the growing market alongside Polymarket and Kalshi, while crypto trading platforms such as Coinbase and Crypto.com also integrate prediction markets.
Other Wall Street players such as Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe Global Markets have also invested in the space or announced plans to launch their own market prediction offerings.
CME Group’s partnership with American gambling company FanDuel will allow traders to bet on markets outside of finance, while Cboe’s offering will focus on financial and economic contracts.
Crypto asset manager Bitwise also applied to the SEC last month to launch a “PredictionShares” exchange-traded fund that wants to hold contracts on events related to the 2028 US presidential election, while GraniteShares and Roundhill also filed similar applications in February.
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Prediction markets have become one of the hottest crypto use cases in the past year, consistently exceeding $10 billion in monthly transaction volume. Polymarket and Kalshi have been aggressively marketing their products to retail users in recent months, despite some regulators wanting to clamp down on the industry.
Nasdaq wants to offer its forecast on several platforms
Nasdaq also plans to offer performance-linked options on other Nasdaq options exchanges, including Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX.
Nasdaq MRX uses a first-come, first-served system and does not pay trading incentives, while Nasdaq NOM and Nasdaq PHLX have pricing models that can reward participants for adding liquidity.
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