Actor Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet as the most likely to win Best Actor at the 2026 Oscars on Polymarket’s prediction platform, with his odds more than quadrupling since March 1.
Last week, the “Sinners” star won the Best Actor award at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild Awards, or SAG.
A week after the Academy Awards, Polymarket traders estimate Jordan has a 47% chance of winning, with Chalamet a 45% runner-up, Leonardo DiCaprio 5%, Wagner Moura 4% and Ethan Hawke just 1%. Chalamet was in the lead until Saturday.
Jordan was nominated for an Oscar for playing twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film The Sinners. Chalamet was nominated for his role in the feature-drama film about a table tennis player, Marty Supreme.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences awards show is set for March 15, and the best actor Oscar prediction market at the time of publication is trading at over $5.6 million on Polymarket.
Market prediction platforms emerged during the 2024 US election and continue to gain momentum, with crypto exchanges integrating prediction markets into their platforms and traditional financial firms also looking at market prediction products.
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Polymarket plans to launch US programs this year, but regulatory hurdles remain
Polymarket opened its application to select and waitlisted US users in December 2025, and full launch of the regulated US platform is expected later in 2026.
However, market prediction platforms face scrutiny from some state-level regulators in the United States, which say they have the authority to regulate event contracts.
In February 2026, Polymarket filed a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, arguing that a state-level gambling regulator has no jurisdiction over the prediction markets, and that jurisdiction rests solely with the Federal Financial Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The lawsuit could set a legal precedent on whether futures markets are regulated only at the federal level or whether oversight is split between federal and state agencies.
Polymarket and Kalshi also face increased regulatory scrutiny in the state of Nevada after a federal judge rejected arguments that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and the CFTC prevented state regulators from overseeing futures markets.
Both platforms are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion, roughly double their last valuation.
Each has held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising new capital at a high cost, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that negotiations remain at an early stage and may not lead to a deal or secure a target price.
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