Macron will visit the top-secret subbase as some Europeans worry about US nuclear guarantees

Paris — They hide in the oceans, a last resort to crush the invaders with nuclear fire if France’s commander in chief makes that dire call.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has the power to unleash France’s nuclear arsenal, will renew French thinking on Monday about the potential use of warheads carried by submarines and aircraft. It comes amid concerns that Russian war-making in Europe could spread beyond Ukraine and uncertainty about the alliance with US President Donald Trump.

For decades, Europe has lived under the protective umbrella of US nuclear weapons, stationed on the continent since the mid-1950s to deter the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Recently, however, some European politicians and defense analysts are questioning whether Washington can still be relied upon to use such force if necessary.

As the only nuclear-armed member of the 27-nation European Union, the questions concern France in particular.

Possible revisions to France’s nuclear deterrence policy, which will be carefully calibrated and tested by allies and potential enemies, are among the most impactful decisions Macron will make in his remaining 14 months as president before elections in 2027 to choose his successor.

Macron feels the need to pull out France’s nuclear teeth, in his second major speech as commander-in-chief, laying out the country’s deterrence posture since his election in 2017, repeatedly voicing geopolitical and defense-technological changes that threaten the security of France and its allies.

Rasmus Jarlov, chairman of the Danish parliament’s defense committee, is among those expressing doubts about Washington’s credibility.

“If things were really serious, I doubt very much that Trump would risk American cities to protect European cities,” he said in an interview with The Associated Press. “We don’t know but it seems too risky to rely on American protection.”

He and others are turning to France for courage. In the long run, Jarlov argues, other European nations will also need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons — an almost unfathomable prospect when US defense is so firmly on Europe’s mind.

“Nordic countries have the capability. We have uranium, we have nuclear scientists. We can develop nuclear weapons,” he said. “Actually, it will take a lot of time. So in the short term, we’re looking at France.”

The world has changed dramatically since Macron’s first policy-making nuclear speech in 2020, with new uncertainties pushing aside old certainties.

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year, brought the war to the EU’s doorstep and renewed threats of possible nuclear use by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

China is expanding its nuclear arsenal. Likewise, North Korea’s nuclear-armed military. In October, Trump spoke of US intentions to resume nuclear tests for the first time since 1992, although US Energy Secretary Chris Wright later said such tests would not involve nuclear explosions.

Russia revised its deterrence policy in 2024, lowering its bar for possible retaliation with nuclear weapons. The United Kingdom has announced plans to buy nuclear-capable US-made F-35A fighter jets, restoring the ability to deliver nuclear airstrikes that were phased out in the 1990s, leaving it with only submarine-based nuclear missiles.

The site chosen for Macron’s speech on Monday — the Île Long base for France’s four nuclear-armed submarines — drives home that even the French president has nuclear muscle at his disposal in an increasingly unstable world. They can each be armed with 16 M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles with multiple warheads.

“There are high expectations from allies and partners and perhaps adversaries about how French nuclear doctrine might evolve,” said Heloise Fayette, a nuclear deterrence expert at the French Institute of International Relations, a Paris think tank.

Speaking in an AP interview, Fayette said she hopes for “real changes.”

“Perhaps something about a greater and clearer French commitment to the defense of allies, thanks to French nuclear weapons,” he said.

Macron said in 2020 that France would have fewer than 300 warheads — a steady state since former president Nicolas Sarkozy announced a modest reduction to that level in 2008.

Macron said the force would be enough to cause “totally unacceptable damage” on the “political, economic, military nerve centers” of any country that threatens France’s “vital interests”.

Nuclear experts are watching for any hint from Macron that the French stockpile is insufficient and may need to grow.

The language of deterrence is often shrouded in deliberate ambiguity, to keep potential adversaries guessing about the red lines that trigger a nuclear response. Officials in Macron’s office, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss nuclear policy changes Macron might make, were more guarded about their words because deterrence is strictly the president’s prerogative.

“No doubt there will be some changes, quite substantial developments,” said an official.

Again with words of caution, Macron said in 2020 that the “important interests” that France could protect with nuclear force did not end at its borders but had a “European dimension”.

Some European countries have taken up Macron’s offer to discuss France’s nuclear deterrence and even involve European partners in French nuclear exercises.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has held “initial talks” with Macron about the nuclear deterrent and has publicly theorized that German air force planes could be used to transport French nuclear bombs.

European countries engaged with France are seeking a “second life insurance” against any possibility of US withdrawal of nuclear protection, says Etienne Marcuse, a French nuclear defense expert at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research think tank.

“The United States is unpredictable — unpredictable — because of the Trump 2 administration,” he said. “It legitimately raises the question of whether the United States is really prepared to defend Europe and, above all, whether it is willing to deploy its nuclear forces in defense of Europe.”

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Associated Press writers Sylvie Corbett in Paris and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin contributed.