Khamenei’s death raises questions about Trump’s China trip

BEIJING – Uncertainty is growing over US President Donald Trump’s high-risk trip to China after Washington targeted a second foreign leader in two months.

Trump announced over the weekend that joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In early January, the United States also captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife at their residence.

Analysts say those actions could complicate Trump’s high-risk trip to Beijing.

“President Xi Jinping will not be reassured by the death of Iran’s top leader,” said George Chen, a partner at The Asia Group, noting Beijing’s relatively good relations with Tehran and Caracas.

“How can Xi feel that everything is normal and fine and be prepared to welcome Trump’s visit in a happy mood?” said. Chen added that “investors should manage their expectations about what Trump can accomplish on his China trip, if he still does.”

Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2, following a fragile trade truce with China reached in late October. It would be the first trip by a sitting US president since 2017.

But Beijing has not yet confirmed the dates.

China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Khamenei’s assassination, calling it “a serious violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security.” Beijing urged an immediate ceasefire, although it was less direct about the US role than after Maduro’s capture.

“I am concerned that the American side could use Iran, if things go wrong, to delay the trip,” said a foreign business executive who is closely following preparations for the meeting and who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

“I think the risk (of the trip failing) is more on the American side than on the Chinese side,” the executive added.

US-based prediction markets flagged a higher likelihood of a delay to Trump’s trip.

Late Monday morning, Polymarket showed a sharp drop in expectations that Trump would visit China by March 31, to 42%, from 83.9% on February 21, while bets on a visit by April 30 remained high at 81%.

Kalshi showed a slight drop in expectations that Trump would visit China in 2027, although it remained at a high 91%.

While many analysts still expect the ride to continue, it’s less clear how U.S. companies will navigate their deal plans in the world’s second-largest economy.

Several American executives were expected to accompany Trump on his trip to Beijing, following a pattern of business delegations that followed leaders from different countries on their trips this year to China in an attempt to close deals.

“Before the attack on Iran, many American CEOs were no longer willing to go with Trump to China. Now the situation is even more complicated,” according to an active member of the American business community in China, who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The White House and China’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

The Chinese reading so far indicates an “unusually softer tone,” said Jack Lee, an analyst at China Macro Group. He hopes Trump will visit Beijing as planned, but is watching to see if Washington shows signs of moderation in arms sales to Taiwan.

The democratically self-governing island, claimed by Beijing, remains a central point of tension in US-China relations.

Meanwhile, Trump told Britain’s Daily Mail newspaper that US strikes on Iran could last four weeks, a point Chinese state media highlighted on Monday morning. That period would be extended until the scheduled March 31 start date of his trip to China.

“If the conflict turns into a regional war beyond what the United States originally planned, it is not impossible for Trump to delay the trip,” said Yue Su, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Still, I hope Trump and (Xi) will have a phone conversation about this at some point,” he said. Their base hypothesis remains that Trump goes ahead with his trip to China later this month.

China begins an annual parliamentary meeting this week, where top diplomat Wang Yi often speaks to the press. In mid-February, Wang told US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that the United States and China should work to expand areas of cooperation.

In foreign policy, Beijing has prioritized its own interests by forging bilateral ties while encouraging multilateral engagement. Official statements on past meetings between the United States and China have noted the need to create “conditions” to develop bilateral relations.

The United States’ actions in Iran have eroded trust between the two countries, said Dong Shaopeng, a senior researcher at Renmin University of China. While he still hopes Trump and Xi will meet in a few weeks, he said he hopes the conflict does not spread to other Middle Eastern countries.

State-affiliated Chinese columnist “Niutanqing” on Monday described Iran’s “war” as more intense than the conflict in Ukraine, drawing several lessons. Of several lessons from the turn of events, the columnist said Khamenei’s death revealed that “traitors” can emerge from within, and that negotiations can hide an adversary’s true intentions, according to a translation from CNBC’s Chinese publication.

If the Trump-Xi meeting goes ahead as planned, it could offer an opportunity for broader peace talks while also addressing strained relations between the United States and China.

“The issues they have to resolve, trade between China and the United States, are quite important, and the meeting has been scheduled for a long time, so canceling it would be quite radical at this point,” said Gary Dvorchak, managing director of Blueshirt Group.

“I don’t think it would help… to improve the situation to cancel the meeting for any reason.”