Virtually all of the different battles simmering within the Democratic Party this year will be on display in Tuesday’s primaries in Illinois, where the retirement of key House Democrats and the state’s senior senator opened new theaters for intraparty animosity.
Deep disagreements on issues like immigration and Israel policy, tactical battles over how best to take on the Trump administration, questions about age and whether to empower a new generation of leaders, and a constant tug-of-war between progressives and moderates for influence in the party are at the fore. They leave their districts.
Meanwhile, an onslaught of tens of millions of dollars in outside spending is also shaping those competitions. Groups linked to the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industries have successfully exploited loopholes in campaign finance rules to keep their funds anonymous until the primary.
From the right in the Senate race to the people down the ballot, here’s a breakdown of the campaigns and what to watch when the results come in Tuesday night.
Test for JB Pritzker
The outcome of the marquee Senate race won’t elevate a new Democratic leader in the state. It could be a measure of Gov. JB Pritzker’s political muscle as he runs for a third term this year and weighs a presidential bid in 2028.
After Durbin announced her retirement last year, Pritzker quickly threw her support behind her lieutenant governor, Julianna Stratton. Sen. Tammy Duckworth soon followed.
That decision pitted the Pritzker machine against Rep. Raja Krishnamurthy — who had already raised millions in fundraising and launched an early ad campaign — and Pritzker, the third major Democratic candidate running to replace Durbin, and Rep. The rift between Robin Kelly resurfaced.
Since he first entered the political arena as a candidate in 2018, Pritzker has wrested control of Illinois’ Democratic infrastructure from longtime state House Speaker (and now felon) Michael Madigan and built his own sprawling political campaign. Pritzker and Kelly butted heads in the past, after Pritzker won a battle to oust him as state party chairman.
Beyond that, Pritzker, a billionaire, has poured money into Stratton, a super PAC backing Krishnamurthy in fundraising. The group, the Illinois Future Fund, spent $14.8 million on ads supporting Stratton and attacking Krishnamurthy, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. The group’s ads also included a spot promoting Stratton’s endorsement of Pritzker, including a video of Pritzker praising her.
As Pritzker and Stratton’s allies try to boost his campaign, Stratton faces an attack from a super PAC funded by crypto executives and companies. Fairshake spent $9.4 million on ads attacking Stratton in the race.
Jeff Vetter, a spokesman for Fairshake, said in a statement that the group does not comment on “individual races or strategic decisions” but that “Fairshake supports pro-crypto candidates and opposes anti-crypto politicians.”
The link may include measures Pritzker signed into state law last year that established new crypto regulations. Sen. Stratton Endorsed by Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who has pushed for more regulation of the crypto industry.
Does Krishnamurthy’s money matter?
The Senate primary race will put Krishnamurthy’s massive campaign spending to the test. His campaign spent about $29 million on ads, according to AdImpact.
Meanwhile, Stratton’s campaign spent $1.3 million on ads, while Kelly’s campaign spent $1.1 million.
A Pritzker-funded super PAC has given Stratton a boost, but it’s unclear whether Krishnamurthy’s early campaign spending, which first aired in July, helped establish an insurmountable lead.
Meanwhile, the content of the campaign ads tells a story about where the Democratic Party is right now, with all three Senate candidates positioning themselves as fighters against President Donald Trump. Krishnamurthy says he’s “the only person with a real plan to hold Trump accountable” in his closing TV ad. Stratton’s latest TV ad compares Trump to a dictator, she throws “Trump’s playbook” into the fire and says “Washington won’t stop him.” Kelly didn’t mention Trump in her final TV ad, but she did mention her plans to address high spending, saying, “It’s time to focus on what’s really important: you.”
Eight Republicans are also on the primary ballot, while Democrats are expected to hold onto the Senate seat in the traditionally Democratic state.
Anti-ICE messaging
Democratic Senate candidates are at odds over how to approach immigration and customs enforcement, with an anti-ICE message dominating recent ads in the race and other party primaries across the country. Tuesday’s results could send a signal about which proposal resonated most with Democratic voters.
Last year, when the Trump administration ramped up federal agents in an effort known as Operation Midway Blitz, months of aggressive immigration operations wreaked havoc in and around Chicago’s neighborhoods and its suburbs. Immigration officials shot two people — one fatally — and hundreds of complaints culminated in a federal court battle involving then-Border Patrol Commander Gregory Bovino over allegations of constitutional rights violations. During the operation, around 1,600 people were arrested. All three candidates said in interviews that they identified with their community.
Democrats broadly want to overhaul ICE in the wake of Trump’s mass deportation efforts, and after federal immigration agents shot and killed two people in Minnesota earlier this year, the party is divided over how to do that, as are its candidates in Illinois.
Stratton has called for the complete repeal of ICE, adopting a mantra that some Democrats worry could be weaponized by Republicans. Krishnamurthy says he wants to “repeal Trump’s ICE,” calls for some reforms but notes that immigration enforcement will continue. And Kelly has said he wants to “dismantle” ICE and the Department of Homeland Security broadly.
A secret-money bid to swing House primaries
It’s not unusual for outside money to pour into both parties’ primaries, especially in open seats in safe districts, where primary winners can hold congressional seats for decades. What’s unusual this year in Illinois is the presence of two groups that have spent more than $14 million in three districts in Chicagoland without any public accounting of who is funding them or why.
Two major groups — Affordable Chicago Now and Elected Chicago Women — appeared in the final stages six weeks before the primary and boosted Cook County Board of Commissioners member Donna Miller in the 2nd Congressional District, former Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th District and state Rep. Laura Fine in the 9th District.
Another similarly opaque group, the Chicago Progressive Partnership, spent more than $1 million in the 9th District, ostensibly boosting local school board official Bushra Amiwala. But another progressive in that race has spent more than $1 million to attack former journalist Kat Abugazleh and more than $600,000 against Junaid Ahmed, a progressive tech consultant in the 8th District. That has raised questions about whether the group is actually trying to split the progressive vote.
When those groups started, they were not required to disclose their financial backers to the Federal Election Commission until days after the primary period. Opponents have accused the American Israel Public Affairs Committee of being responsible for the spending. Amiwala, for example, accused the Chicago Progressive Partnership over the weekend that AIPAC “used its good name to do something toxic.” There is still no direct evidence on the origin of the groups.
By the end of Tuesday night, it will be clear whether those secretive groups got what they paid for, or whether they backfired with tactics to scramble the results.
It’s especially worth watching in the 9th District, where elected Chicago women’s spending is good, the race’s main establishment contender, and an attack on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who is backed by a retired district representative. Meanwhile, Abughazaleh, another high-profile progressive, could take advantage.
Beane is not alone in his comeback attempt. Jesse Jackson Jr. is asking voters to give him another shot in the 2nd District after resigning from Congress in 2012 and pleading guilty to misusing campaign funds in 2013. He’s not backed by one of the secret money groups, but he’s gotten a boost from a super PAC aligned with AI company OpenAI.
Israeli politics
Whether or not pro-Israel groups are responsible for the secret spending, the campaigns for those House seats are part of a massive fight over Israel in the Democratic Party. Tuesday’s results will have significant implications for the makeup of the Democratic caucus and the primary-to-primary battle over Israel this year.
The Democratic Majority for Israel is supporting candidates in two districts: Miller in the 2nd and Bean in the 8th. The United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC, has spent millions promoting Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyers-Erwin in the 7th District. And at 9, Fein, who is Jewish, has emerged as the most vocal defender of the race for US support for Israel.
Progressives in that race — including Biss and Abughazaleh in the 9th District, Ahmed in the 8th, several candidates in the crowded 7th and Robert Peters in the 2nd — have offered varying degrees of criticism of Israel’s handling of the war against Hamas in Gaza. And they have denied AIPAC’s alleged involvement in their races because they aim to promote the left.
