Bitcoin’s broad return from its highs left traders in uncertaintyand many investors are not convinced whether the worst recession has already passed.
An analyst known as Jelle on X believes that the conversation may be missing the uncomfortable reality that Bitcoin bear markets are often more painful than most participants expect. The price data, he said, supports a more relevant interpretation How Bitcoin’s current return will play out.
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Bitcoin’s current decline is smaller than previous bear markets
Jelle Crypto Analyst gave an interesting warning to investors who may underestimate the depth and duration of Bitcoin bear markets. In a post on X, Jelle noted that Bitcoin is currently down about 44% from its all-time high of $126,080, and the local low in February is around $63,000, representing a 53% decline from the peak. These are loud on the ground. However, they are relatively modest compared to the historical record.
Historical data shows that previous Bitcoin bear markets have pushed the asset much deeper than its peak. The market crash after the 2017 rally eventually wiped out about 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the bear market that followed the 2021 period saw it drop to 77%.
A look at the joint Jelle diagram shown below shows how consistent the periodic structure was. Since 2014, Bitcoin has gone through periods of steady gains and declines. Each bull run lasts approximately 150 to 152 weeks, and each bear market lasts anywhere from 52 to 58 weeks.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL In X
The current bear phase, by this measure, is very short as previous periods have found their floors. Anticipating a bear market phase from October 2025, which is an all-time high, will continue the current correction until around October 2026.
“Unfortunately, I think there is more pain ahead for BTC,” Jelle said.
RSI tells investors to wait
The analyst also looked at Bitcoin’s relative strength index, which has repeatedly signaled the end of bear markets. in another post. Jelle observed that every previous bear market eventually ended when the weekly RSI broke below the 37 level. Once indicator cross this threshold it often declines before the price of bitcoin reaches its maximum.
Bitcoin fell almost 30% as the RSI broke below this level for the first time in the current period. This is a downgrade smaller than what in earlier periods, although not enough to stand out as a clear anomaly given the limited number of examples.
Most important, according to Jelle, is the pattern that forms at the end of a bear market. A final low is usually found when the RSI makes a higher low to the level recorded at the previous low. This higher low can occur at the same time as a lower price or a higher low price.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL In X
Related reading
When the price is making a lower low but the RSI is printing a lower one, the price action is making a high divergence on the weekly chart. This signal always precedes the transition from bear market conditions to the next phase of accumulation. Until this structure is visible, Patience is the best approach.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
