Senator Chris Murphy says people close to Donald Trump may be betting with “insider information” on prediction markets about when the US will attack Iran.
Democratic U.S. lawmakers are drafting a bill to police market predictions after growing insider trading concerns over bets on the timing of Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iran.
Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy said in a video posted to X on Wednesday that what he claimed were White House insiders “concretely embarrassed” on Friday that the US would go to war with Iran on Saturday.
“Obviously, there are people close to Donald Trump who knew on Friday what happened on Saturday, and there’s a strong possibility — even a possibility — that the people who made those bets were people with inside information,” he said.
Murphy added that allowing bets on the continuation of the war could see those close to the president “push us into war because they can get money.”
A series of bets spread widely on Polymarket on Saturday, with six newly established accounts winning nearly $1 million betting on the timing of the US attack on Iran.
In several cases, bets were placed hours before the first reports of explosions in Tehran.
Bets on US attacks in Iran have so far generated $529 million on Polymarket. Last month, a Polymarket trader made nearly $400,000 from a timed bet on the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
Bill for the purpose of predicting market insider trading
Reuters reported Thursday that Murphy and Democratic House Representative Mike Levin are working on a bill that would tighten pressure on fortune markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
related to: Polymarket user betting on ZachXBT investigation earns $400,000
“It is absolutely clear to me that if someone uses prior knowledge of military operations for financial gain, that is absolutely illegal,” Levin said.
He added that financial laws prohibit contracts for events related to war, terrorism or other events “contrary to the public interest,” but the rules give more freedom to prediction markets.
Magazine: Would Bitcoin Really Be $200K Without Jane Street? Trade secret
