Iran-backed militias across the Middle East continue their attacks on Israel, the United States and their allies in retaliation for the US-Israeli offensive against Tehran, but have so far refrained from a full confrontation, analysts and regional officials say.
The relative restraint suggests that Tehran views those forces as a strategic reserve that must be deployed if the 12-day war continues to escalate, although it may also be a sign that Iranian command and control systems are crumbling.
Hezbollah, the Lebanon-based Islamist militant movement that has close ties to Iran, joined the conflict early, launching missile and drone attacks on Israel after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.
On Tuesday, Shiite militias in Iraq attacked a US diplomatic facility in Baghdad, the latest in a series of such attacks, and previously launched long-range attacks against Israeli and US bases in Jordan.
But so far, the Yemen-based Houthis, who are also part of Iran’s once-potent coalition of militant militias across the Middle East known as the “axis of resistance,” have not reopened hostilities with the United States or joined Tehran’s retaliatory attacks against Israel or its Gulf neighbors or its shipping, although they warned last week that their “fingers are on the trigger.”
With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil supplies, the Red Sea shipping routes have become even more vital. No attacks have been reported in the Red Sea since the war with Iran began, but threats remain, the Joint Maritime Information Center, a naval advisory service, said on Sunday.
Observers say the imminent passage of a US aircraft carrier battle group through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the eastern end of the Red Sea would be a key moment that would test the intentions of the powerful armed movement.
“It’s going to be a really important test… The Houthis have mines, drones, artillery, a whole range of missiles. The axis of resistance will never have a better opportunity to set fire to an American aircraft carrier,” said Michael Knights, a regional expert. expert at Horizon Engage, a strategic consultancy -based in New York-.
The Houthis have received extensive financial, military and other support from Tehran for decades, and described Monday’s appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader as “a new victory for the Islamic Revolution.”
However, experts say that the Houthis, while still possessing an arsenal of powerful long-range missiles, may decide not to actively participate in the current conflict and would not simply follow orders from Tehran.
“It’s hard to predict, but I don’t think they will attack shipping in the Red Sea simply out of solidarity with Iran… They are weighing internal considerations,” said Allison Minor of the Atlantic Council, a Washington, DC-based think tank.
“Engaging in the Iran war is a potential scenario, but it would not produce the same domestic and international benefits for the Houthis as attacking Israel and Red Sea shipping during the Gaza war, and…could pose greater risks.”
Last week, Phillip Smyth, a US-based independent analyst on Iran’s allies and proxies, said Tehran may be keeping the Houthis “in reserve” but that the movement’s leaders could also be “hedging their bets in case the Iranian regime collapses.”
In Iraq, which is emerging as a key new theater of conflict, violence has continued to flare.
An Iranian-backed armed group said an airstrike on Tuesday killed four of its fighters at a base in northern Iraq in the latest in a series of such attacks, likely carried out by the United States or Israel.
The attack comes after almost daily attacks by pro-Iran militias against a US base in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region, and against positions of potential allies among local Kurdish factions.
Since the start of the war 12 days ago, there have been unconfirmed reports of US and Israeli special forces operating against pro-Iran Shiite militia groups in Iraq’s western desert. In a clash with what were believed to be Israeli special forces, Iraqi government troops suffered casualties, sparking an outcry from Baghdad.
There have also been multiple airstrikes against militia bases in western and southern Iraq.
Jordan has faced Iranian attacks. According to the Jordanian military, Iran attacked the kingdom with 60 missiles and 59 drones during the first week of the conflict. Most were intercepted.
However, the missiles destroyed a valuable US radar deployed at the Muwaffaq Salti air base, where dozens of US fighter jets were stationed, including F-35 stealth fighters and key electronic warfare aircraft.
In Iraq, drone and rocket attacks launched by pro-Iran militias have also repeatedly targeted Baghdad International Airport, which is home to a US military base and diplomatic facility, as well as oil fields and facilities. On Monday, two drones were shot down nearby, a security source said.
Iraq-based militia fighters have released videos boasting of their efforts to attack US and Israeli targets in the region, although some observers doubt their ability and willingness to inflict serious damage.
“They could be doing more than what they are doing now,” said a regional security official. “The (weapons) they have are not the best… and they are clearly worried about getting hit hard if they cause serious damage, so that will limit what they can or want to do.”
Iraq has been an indirect battleground between the United States, its allies and Iran since the US-led invasion in 2003, but the country’s current leaders have sought to avoid being drawn into this new conflict. Pro-Iran militia fighters are recruited from Iraq’s majority Shiite community and follow orders from senior officers in Iran’s Quds Force, an elite unit within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Two of the most militant militias, Kataeb Imam Ali and Kataib Hezbollah, have been repeatedly attacked by US forces in recent days.
The number of casualties in the attacks and counterattacks in Iraq is unclear, but between 20 and 30 fighters from militant groups are believed to have been killed, as well as about 20 civilians in Kurdistan, local NGOs said.
The Houthis began launching missiles at Israel and attacking ships in the Red Sea, in what they said was solidarity with the Palestinians, after the Israeli offensive in Gaza triggered by Hamas’ surprise attack in October 2023.
The attacks prompted several rounds of Israeli bombings against the Houthis and a concentrated U.S. offensive last year that ended in an uneasy ceasefire agreement.
Analysts said another scenario that could play out now would be a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia. Its attack on oil infrastructure in March 2022 highlighted the kingdom’s political and economic vulnerabilities.
