Amid the wide ramifications of the current conflict in the Middle East, Iran’s participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup has become a key topic of conversation, with the tournament less than 100 days away.
The global sporting event will be co-hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States from June 11 to July 19, and Iran is among 48 nations expected to travel to North America at least a week before the opening match.
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US President Donald Trump says he doesn’t care whether Iran participates in the World Cup or not.
“I think Iran is a very defeated country. They are exhausted,” Trump told US news site Politico on Tuesday.
The United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday that have killed at least 1,045 people, including its supreme leader Ali Khamenei, and sparked a regional conflict that has spread to 12 countries.
Tehran responded by launching waves of missiles and drones at Israel and at several military bases in the Middle East where US forces operate.
Following the escalations, Iran’s place in the World Cup has been left in doubt, and officials from the Iranian soccer federation and FIFA have not committed to the world’s 20th-ranked soccer nation participating.
“After this attack, we cannot wait for the World Cup with hope,” Mehdi Taj, president of the Football Federation of the Islamic Republic of Iran (FFIRI), told the local sports portal Varzesh3 on Sunday.
unexplored territory
A leading sports and geopolitics expert believes Iran’s participation in the tournament is in serious doubt due to armed conflict between one of the host nations and a participant.
“Ultimately, the diplomatic solution (will be) for Iran itself to simply step aside and withdraw from the tournament,” Simon Chadwick, a professor of Afro-Eurasian sport at Shanghai’s Emlyon Business School, told Al Jazeera.
Chadwick said it is “very difficult” to see the United States allowing players, coaching staff and officials to enter the country.
“The United States will not be willing to admit (Iranian) players, officials or doctors, who normally travel with the teams to tournaments.
“Given that they (Iran) will have to play their matches in the United States, it seems unlikely to me that they will be there.”
Despite the logistical quagmire and its unlikely resolution in a timely manner, Chadwick said withdrawal will not be an easy option for Iran, which will think “very carefully before withdrawing.”
The last time a team withdrew from a FIFA World Cup for political reasons was in 1950, when Argentina withdrew, citing disagreements with the Brazilian Football Confederation.
“We’re in uncharted territory here,” Chadwick explained.
“We tend to associate boycotts and countries not participating in mega sporting events with the Olympic Games, where massive boycotts occurred in 1980 and 1984 during the Cold War.
“Normally, that doesn’t happen at World Cups.”
Chadwick, who has written several books on the economics and politics of sport, believes the impact of the withdrawal will not only be political, but also financial.
“On the one hand, we live in very complex and sensitive times, and arguably there are reasons for a country to withdraw or be banned,” he said.
“But we (also) live in very commercial times, and the financial consequences of unilaterally abandoning what is arguably the world’s biggest sporting mega-event is an act of self-harm. We also don’t know how FIFA would react if a nation unilaterally abandoned its qualifying spot.”
Can sports diplomacy save the World Cup?
Although the tournament is split between three host countries, all of Iran’s matches are assigned to venues on the west coast of the United States.
This could be largely due to the presence of a significant Iranian community, especially in Los Angeles, where Team Melli will play two of its three Group G matches.
According to Chadwick, if Iran had played in Canada or Mexico, the team could have influenced his decision to participate. But organizers are unlikely to move the games outside the United States now.
“It would be extremely unusual to take games to another country to accommodate a particular country, particularly when the president of FIFA and the president of the United States seem to be very close,” he said, adding, “the relationship between the United States and Canada, and between the United States and Mexico, is also somewhat complicated.”
While FIFA has not made a clear statement on the issue, its secretary general Mattias Grafstrom has said that world football’s governing body is monitoring the conflict and the situation emerging from it.
“We had a meeting today and it is premature to comment in detail, but we will monitor developments around all issues around the world,” he said last week.
With just over three months until the tournament, FIFA said it will “continue to communicate with host governments.”
Chadwick believes FIFA will try to avoid a result in which Iran is excluded, as it would cause a logistical headache and set the wrong precedent.
“What we’re most likely to see is sports diplomacy really kicking in,” he predicted.
“The last thing FIFA will want is for a country to be excluded or simply not show up because that sets a precedent and puts pressure on FIFA.”
“The cold war of sport”
With the conflict raging for a fifth day and spreading further across the Middle East, it is unclear when Iranian soccer officials will heed the call to send their team to the United States.
However, if Iran chooses to withdraw from the World Cup, it could spark a sporting crisis.
Chadwick believes the consequences could be far-reaching and long-term.
“Politically, it would perhaps lead us into a new sporting cold war, and what I find very interesting is that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia have been toying with the idea of creating a world sports championship called the Peace Games, which looks like the Olympics and sounds like the Olympics, but it’s not.
“And Russia managed to recruit more than 70 countries to participate in that sporting event.”
Such an event could find support from Iran, should it have no choice but to withdraw from the World Cup. It could even lead to the creation of a similar tournament, according to Chadwick.
“It is not inconceivable that at some point in the future, countries could create their own equivalent of a football World Cup, especially given that FIFA is an organization established by Europeans, which is based in Europe and its presidents are usually Europeans.”
“Some countries may use this as an opportunity to think about alternative ways of organizing global football competitions, almost like a cold war in football.”
Despite the current scenario and the expansion of the conflict in recent days, Chadwick believes that organizers and leaders could still find a way to include Iran in the World Cup.
“If at the end of the conflict a new Iran emerges – in which big textile companies can sell their products without sanctions or broadcasters can win big contracts – then the World Cup could play a role in building that diplomacy between the United States and Iran, as well as reintegrating Iran into the international community.”
