Rising oil prices as a result of the Iran war are a gift to Russia, filling its depleted coffers and easing the burden of prosecuting its costly war in Ukraine.
At the same time, the extensive use across the Middle East of air defense systems to counter Iranian missile attacks raises a new concern for Ukraine, making it even more difficult to obtain the scarce resources it needs to defend itself against Russian missile and drone bombardments.
Overall, the fallout from the growing conflict in the Middle East is likely to favor Russia’s interests and allow it to continue its war in Ukraine longer, several analysts of the two wars say.
Why do we write this?
From skyrocketing oil prices to depleting missile defenses, the impacts of the Iran war quickly reverberated through Ukraine’s longstanding conflict. And the needs of Middle East fighters (intelligence and anti-drone measures) have created diplomatic and strategic openings for both Russia and Ukraine.
However, some also see a long-term gain for brave Ukraine in the way it has offered its indigenous anti-drone technologies to Western and Middle Eastern partners, transforming itself from a needy consumer of defense to a valuable contributor to the defense and security of its partners.
“At least in the short term, several of the developments we see with the outbreak of war in Iran are beneficial to Russian interests,” says Robert Person, senior fellow in the Eurasia program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Washington.
“But despite the very serious problems that this new war presents for Ukraine, the moment is also potentially a milestone,” he adds. “We are witnessing his transition from a victim of war who begged capital after capital for his defense to a valued collaborator and defense partner.”
When Iranian Shahed drones began attacking US bases as well as cities in the Gulf and the broader region, Ukraine was quick to offer its cutting-edge technology and expertise in countering the Shahed to the United States, Jordan, and several Gulf Arab countries.
A diminished America
But Russia also stands to benefit from the war with Iran in ways that go beyond its war in Ukraine, some analysts say.
“We already see (President Donald) Trump looking for a way out of what in less than two weeks will be a very costly war,” says Rajan Menon, professor emeritus of international studies at the City College of New York. “For Russia, but also for China – two countries with strong ties to Iran – the apparent failure of this war is a victory insofar as it takes the United States down a notch.”
Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor
The Trump administration gave Russia another windfall on Thursday when it temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil as part of an effort to contain rising oil prices. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post that removing sanctions, even temporarily, would add hundreds of millions of barrels to the global market.
Later, during a podcast interview, the secretary acknowledged that Russia would benefit from the suspension, calling it “unfortunate.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is well aware of the broader benefits he can gain from transforming Washington’s war against Iran into a broader regional conflict, says Dr. Person.
While Russia already gains from higher energy prices, he notes, exporting its oil does not require access to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has promised to keep closed.
“But on another level,” he adds, “as leader of the global coalition to counter and contain the United States, Russia is more than happy to see another American distraction.”
Ukraine in the background
The United States, distracted by the war in the Middle East, is less likely to maintain its pressure to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This presents positive aspects for both Russia and Ukraine, some analysts say.
Russia, once its financial concerns are alleviated, will be able to continue fighting in Ukraine free of diplomatic efforts for a deal in which it has never shown interest. And Ukraine will feel less pressure to accept a painful “land for peace” agreement that the United States has been pushing.
The downside for Ukraine is a diplomatic vacuum that leaves it sidelined on the international stage, even as Russia is expected to escalate its aggression with a spring-summer offensive.
Indeed, the nightmare scenario for Ukraine is an exacerbated global shortage of air defense systems and ammunition that leaves its cities defenseless in the coming months against intensifying Russian airstrikes.
Marcial Trezzini/Keystone/AP
“In just the first week of the war in the Middle East, we saw dozens of Patriot air defense launchers sending hundreds of interceptors against incoming Iranian missiles and drones,” Dr. Person says. “Where Ukraine comes in is that we know production of these coveted systems is limited,” he adds, “so as these countries deplete their supplies, that simply means more competition for a scarce product.”
European officials acknowledged last week that growing pressure on air defense systems as a result of the war with Iran will complicate their commitment to provide such weapons to Ukraine.
Concerns have been growing in European capitals – as well as among some members of the pro-Ukraine Congress – that Russia will take advantage of depleted air defenses to accelerate attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure with the aim of bringing the country to its knees.
Longer term goals
But some observers say Putin is almost certainly looking for ways beyond Ukraine to take advantage of the U.S. war in Iran.
Dr. Menon notes, for example, that Putin and Trump had an hour-long phone call last week, even as the Russian leader suggested he might play a mediation role in any talks between Iran and the United States.
“The fact that Russia is stuck in Ukraine has raised a lot of questions about whether Russia is really a great power,” he says. “If Putin could position himself as a mediator, that could help him dispel those doubts and renew Russia’s image as a great power.”
Russia would also not want the war in the Middle East to drag on too long and cause chaos near its southern border, Dr. Person says, something Russia has long feared.
At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is demonstrating through his anti-drone technology offering the “intelligence” that has enhanced his standing on the international stage, he says, and that has cemented Ukraine’s image as an innovator in defense technology.
The Iran war “has both (Putin and Zelenskyy) playing true to their characters,” he says.
intelligence sharing
The question of how Putin is playing this war arose again after reporting – first in The New York Times and then in other media outlets – about US officials’ knowledge that Russia was sharing intelligence with Iran that allowed Tehran to attack US forces in the region.
When asked about the reports, Trump’s top Iran negotiator, Steve Witkoff, told Fox News that Russia had denied sharing intelligence with Iran.
“Do the Russians have the ability to gather that kind of intelligence and then share it? Yes, they do,” says Dr. Menon. “Would they say then that they had shared it? Of course not.”
Furthermore, he says, this type of revelation is unlikely to sway Trump, who long ago established his favorable opinion of the Russian leader and which he has maintained throughout Russia’s four-year attack on Ukraine.
Russian cooperation with Iran must be seen in the context of Moscow’s ambitions to form a bloc that challenges the global power of the United States, says Dr. Person. In that context, he says there is something else to remember about intelligence sharing.
“The fact is,” he says, “the United States regularly provides intelligence to Ukraine for its attacks against Russian military targets.”
