The S&P 500 Index ($ SPX ) ( SPY ) closed down -0.61% on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) ( DIA ) closed -0.26%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) ( QQQ ) closed -0.62%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.60%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -0.66%.
Stocks gave up early gains on Friday and retreated, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrials falling to 3.5-month lows. Stocks fell after crude oil prices recovered from early losses and fell more than +3%, as the war in Iran showed no signs of abating. The United States is moving a naval reconnaissance unit to the Middle East as Iran steps up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
Stocks initially rose on Friday as WTI crude gave up overnight gains and fell more than -2% after the United States granted a temporary waiver allowing buyers to buy cargoes of Russian oil already at sea. The U.S. Treasury earlier on Thursday granted a month-long waiver on Russian oil imports, covering Russian crude and about 30 oil tankers carrying at least 19 million barrels. Crude was also briefly depressed after the Financial Times reported that France and Italy had begun talks with Iran to guarantee safe passage of its ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil prices also found support Friday after U.S. officials said Iran had begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, an effort that could further complicate U.S. efforts to resume shipping through the waterway. Despite the United States destroying several large ships in Iran’s navy that laid mines, Iran began using smaller vessels for the operation on Thursday, a US official said, citing intelligence. Goldman Sachs warns that if the Strait of Hormuz passes through, oil prices could be close to the 2008 record high of $150 by March.
Recent speeches by President Trump and Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei suggest there will be no immediate easing of the conflict, disrupting energy transitions in the Middle East and raising concerns about rising inflation. Global bond yields rose this week on inflation fears, with the German 10-year bond yield rising to a high of 2.25-2.99% on Friday and the 10-year T-note yield rising to a 1.25-month high of 4.29%.
Crude oil prices remain subdued despite efforts to boost global supplies. The IEA on Wednesday released 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves and said a war against Iran would disrupt 7.5 percent of the world’s oil, and that the war would cut global oil supplies by 8 million barrels this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has blocked the flow of oil and gas due to Iranian attacks on ships in the waters and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they cannot export from the region.
Friday’s US economic news was mixed for stocks. John’s personal spending, John’s JOLTS job openings, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index all rose more than expected. However, John’s capital goods new orders for non-defense old aircraft and parts, a proxy for capital spending, were weaker than expected. Also, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and January’s core PCE price index, the Fed’s best inflation gauge, rose to its highest in years at 1.75.
US personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. January personal income rose +0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.
The US core PCE price index, the Fed’s best inflation gauge, rose +3.1% y/y, in line with expectations and the highest in 1.75 years.
US January capital goods new orders for non-defense aircraft and parts were unchanged m/m, weaker than expected by +0.5% m/m.
US Q4 GDP was revised down to +0.7% (q/q annualized) from the previously reported +1.4% as Q4 personal consumption fell to +2.0% from the previously reported +2.4%.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index fell -1.1 to 55.5, a stronger than 54.8 expected.
US University of Michigan’s March 1-year inflation expectations were unchanged from February at 3.4%, below expectations for a rise to 3.7%. March 5-10 year inflation expectations unexpectedly fell to 3.2% from 3.3% in February, weaker than expectations for a rise to 3.4%.
US JOHN JOLTS job openings rose +396,000 to 6.946 million, stronger than expectations of 6.750 million.
With Q4 earnings season nearly over, more than 98% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Earnings are a positive factor for stocks, with 74% of the 495 S&P 500 companies beating expectations. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to increase to +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Excluding top seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase +4.6%.
Markets are discounting a 1% chance of a -25 bp FOMC rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Foreign stock markets were lower on Friday. Euro Stox 50% closed -0.56. China’s Shanghai Composite fell -0.82%. Japan’s Nikkei stock fell 225 -1.16%.
Interest rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) closed unchanged on Friday. The 10-year T-note yield rose +1.8 bp to 4.279%. June T-notes fell to a 1.25-month low on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield hit a 5-week high of 4.289%. T-notes rose on Friday after crude oil prices rose more than +3%, fueling inflation fears. Also, limited gains in T-notes from US economic news after the inauguration of John JOLTS, and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose more than expected, tough factors for Fed policy. Conversely, Q4 GDP was revised lower, and John’s capital goods new orders rose less than expected, supporting factors for T-notes. Also, Friday’s stock weakness created some safe-haven demand for T-notes.
European government bond yields rose on Friday. The 10-year German bund yield rose to a 2.25-year high of 2.992% and ended +2.6 bp at 2.983%. The 10-year UK gilt yield rose to a 6.25-month high of 4.825% and ended +4.9 bp at 4.823%.
UK John GDP changed m/m, weaker than expected +0.2% m/m.
British John Manufacturing output rose +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
Swaps discount a 3% chance of a -25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on March 19.
US stock movers
Meta Platforms ( META ) closed more than -3% to lead Magnificent Seven technology stocks lower after the New York Times reported that the company’s latest AI model missed expectations and is being delayed. Also, Apple ( AAPL ) closed more than -2%, and Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Nvidia ( NVDA ) closed more than -1%. Additionally, Tesla ( TSLA ) closed -0.96%. Amazon.com ( AMZN ) closed down -0.89% and Alphabet ( GOOGL ) closed down -0.42%.
Chip stocks and AI infrastructure companies rose on Friday, a supportive factor for the broader market. SanDisk ( SNDK ) closed more than +6% for the leading gainer in the S&P 500, and Micron Technology ( MU ) closed more than +4% for the leading gainer in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Western Digital ( WDC ) closed more than +4%, and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc ( STX ) closed more than +2%. In addition, Lam Research ( LRCX ), Applied Materials ( AMAT ), and Intel ( INTC ) closed more than +1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rose on Friday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rose more than +1% to a 1-week high. Galaxy Digital Holdings ( GLXY ) closed up more than +8%, and MARA Holdings ( MARA ) closed up more than +6%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase Global (COIN) closed up more than +1%.
Mining stocks sold off on Friday as copper fell more than -2%, gold fell more than -1%, and silver fell more than -4%. Anglogold Ashanti Ltd ( AU ) closed more than -9%, and Coeur Mining ( CDE ) closed more than -6%. Also, Southern Copper ( SCCO ) closed more than -5%, and Newmont Mining ( NEM ), Hecla Mining ( HL ), Barrick Mining ( B ), and Freeport-McMoRan ( FCX ) closed more than -4%.
Fertilizer stocks retreated on Friday, giving back some of this week’s sharp gains. Intrepid Potash (IPI) and Mosaic (MOS) closed more than -6%, and CF Industries Holding (CF) closed more than -4%.
EverCommerce ( EVCM ) closed down more than -15% after forecasting Q1 revenue of $145.5 million to $148.5 million, well below consensus of $151 million.
Ulta Beauty ( ULTA ) closed more than -14% to lead the losers in the S&P 500 after forecasting that full-year comparable sales would rise 2.5% to 3.5%, below the 3.5% consensus.
Adobe ( ADBE ) closed to lead the losers on the Nasdaq 100 by more than 7% after CEO Narine said he would step down and remain in his post until a successor is appointed.
Insulet ( PODD ) closed down more than -6% after issuing a voluntary recall of some Omnipod 5 pods due to a manufacturing issue that led to 18 reports of serious adverse events.
ServiceTitan (TTAN) closed down more than -5% after reporting a Q4 EPS loss of -44 cents, widening the consensus of -41 cents.
Klarna Group Plc (KLAR) closed up more than +9% after an SEC filing showed that Chairman Morits purchased 3.47 million shares through a related agency from March 3rd to March 11th.
Charles Schwab ( SCHW ) closed up more than +2% after expecting 16% revenue growth in Q1 and saying the company’s “diversified financial model continues to deliver.”
Caruana (CVNA) closed up more than +2% after its board approved a 5-1-1 split for its common stock.
Circle Internet Group ( CRCL ) closed up more than +1% after Mizuho Securities raised its stock price target to $120 from $100.
Earnings Reports (3/16/2026)
Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) and Science Applications International (SAIC).
As of the date of publication, Amir Espland had no positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
