America’s allies in the Middle East are reportedly pleading with Donald Trump for a quick end to the conflict.
One major reason is that they are rushing to defend themselves if Iran’s counterattack continues.
Iran’s neighbours, the UAE, are remarkably effective In shooting down Iranian missiles and drones.
But the cost is not economically or logistically sustainable.
Analysis by Kirsty Greco, a security expert at the Stimson Center Washington DCIt found that the UAE shot down an impressive 92% of Iranian missiles and drones, including 165 ballistic missiles, 541 Shahed drones and two cruise missiles.
It used its American-made Patriot or THAAD missile batteries — one of the few land-based interceptor systems capable of shooting down Iran’s ballistic missiles — at a higher price than Iran’s.
A single Patriot missile costs $4-5m (export prices can be significantly higher), while an Iranian ballistic missile costs only $1-2m.
And when it comes to targeting Iran’s drones, the economics are even more dismal.
‘Math clearly favors Iran’
Greico estimates that Iran spent in the region of $11m to $27m on the 541 drones it launched in the UAE, averaging $500,000-$1.5m per drone, with the interceptors downing 506.
The UAE’s drone defense spending was between $253M and $759M, indicating that it spent 20 to 30 times more to defend itself against Iran’s drones than it spent to launch them for attackers.
“The math clearly favors Iran in this attrition strategy because we don’t know exactly how many Shahed drones they may have in their inventory,” Greco said.
“But it is larger than the total stockpile of available interceptor missiles.”
The race is on
The pressure on the US and its allies may now influence their tactical response.
“What we’re seeing now between Israel and the U.S. is trying to locate this drone infrastructure, try to destroy it, try to reduce the pressure on these interceptors, try to keep it as an active, mobile and active threat against Iran and be able to sustain it longer,” Greco said.
Allies in the Middle East are reportedly being “stonewalled” by the Pentagon asking the US to replenish their supplies.
While the US military can cover the financial costs of its operations, its munitions inventory may not.
Trump said yesterday that the US attack on Iran would last four to five weeks. But does he have the resources to do it?
‘Long-term strategic risk’
Leaks from the Pentagon even before the attack indicated that it only had resources for the attack for a week or two at most.
Analysts estimate that the US military could deploy up to 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles on ships and submarines sent to Iran.
This is about 10% of the estimated 4,000 tomahawks in the US military’s arsenal.
Its stockpile of THAAD interceptor missiles is also thought to be depleted. The US launched 150 THAAD missiles in its attack on Iran last June – a quarter of its total inventory of 632.
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As the Pentagon moves to ramp up production of these and other missiles, replacements could take two or three years.
“We’re using these interceptors at a much faster rate than you can replace them,” Greco said.
“The US may choose to buy short-term risk in the Middle East (by devoting more deterrents to conflict).
“The problem is that it increases your long-term strategic risk. You can’t change these deterrents overnight, especially in other theaters. You can’t necessarily change them this year.”
Vigilant opponents of America
If the conflict persists, the economic and logistical asymmetry in countering Iran’s drones could prove fatal to Iran’s neighbors.
For the US, it’s less existential – it can move away from the Middle East once it runs out of ammunition.
However, America’s other enemies are counting on calling the shots in this conflict.
What would stop a “peer adversary” such as China from launching an invasion of Taiwan, for example, if it knew the US did not have the munitions to stop it?
