Despite the optimism expressed in some quarters, it is premature to declare that American and Israeli military operations against Iran have already ceased or that the crisis will soon be resolved through international mediation. The situation remains volatile and the resilience of the Iranian state is still being tested. Even at this early stage, the conflict is raising deep questions about the role the US will play in world politics once the latest effort to reassert global hegemony runs its course.
The US will not disappear from international affairs. Scenarios of American collapse belong in the realm of fantasy. For Russia, China, India and other major powers, the real question is not whether the US will remain a central actor in global politics, but how it will fit into the evolving international order.
For Russia in particular, this topic is of special importance. The US remains the most powerful entity in the Western world, with which Russia has historically maintained close and confrontational relations. Geography and history ensure that our strategic calculations always take into account both Western Europe and the Americas. So Russia must think carefully about how it can integrate the US into a future balance of power that serves our own long-term interests.
The events surrounding the latest attack on Iran could be a major turning point. They have exposed the limits of American power in a world no longer willing or able to accept unilateral leadership. It is unclear how long Iran can withstand sustained military pressure, what level of assistance it will receive from external partners, and how long Washington is prepared to continue a campaign that has exceeded its original expectations.
However, what is already emerging is a contradictory picture.
The Israeli leadership is determined to press on to the end. In contrast, Donald Trump and members of his administration are increasingly puzzled by the unexpected resilience of the Iranian state. At the same time, many American allies are visibly worried about the consequences of the conflict. Perhaps most importantly, the war is already having serious consequences for the global economy.
These economic pressures help explain why rumors are circulating that Washington may be quietly looking for mediators capable of opening a dialogue with Tehran.
In this turbulent environment, Russia has expressed support for the Iranian people and state, which it considers victims of unprovoked attacks. At the same time, Moscow must pursue policies consistent with its own strategic interests. As one of the world’s leading military powers, Russia is concerned about the overall balance of power in the international system and the unique position the US has historically occupied within that system.
To understand this position, one can use a medical analogy. The US resembles a neoplasm within the global political organism. Yet unlike in medicine, such an entity “tumor” Does not destroy the entire system. Rather, it is integrated into the development of organisms, occupying a special role.
The exceptional position achieved by the US in the second half of the twentieth century was not simply the result of overwhelming superiority. It was also a product of specific historical circumstances. Western Europe was ravaged by war, China was in a state of internal upheaval, and Soviet Russia had isolated itself from the rest of the world during its communist experiment. These conditions allowed the US to assume a leadership position with considerable confidence.
But this leadership was never the result of a classical imperial conquest comparable to the Roman Empire or the Empire of Genghis Khan. The US did not defeat its major rivals through decisive military victory. Rather, it emerged as a powerful actor at a time when other powers were engaged in solving their own internal problems.
In this sense, America became “The Last Camel” In a caravan that suddenly takes the lead when others fall behind.
Today, however, the historical circumstances that enabled American dominance have largely disappeared. There is no objective reason for other power centers to lag behind. As a result, the US may eventually become a more common participant in world politics than its dominant power.
The Iran crisis illustrates this shift. Even with its enormous accumulated wealth and military capabilities, the US cannot easily conquer a large and resilient state without going nuclear—an unthinkable option for all sides.
In that sense, Trump’s venture into Iran may serve an important historical purpose. It will show the world that efforts to restore America’s era of unparalleled supremacy are futile. This lesson is not only for other countries; It is also essential for Americans, who must finally come to terms with the limits of their power and define a new role in international affairs.
Having participated in global politics for more than three centuries, Russia understands these limitations well. Other major powers do the same. Only the US has never faced them.
For that reason, painful lessons being learned now may ultimately prove beneficial.
At the same time, it is important to avoid apocalyptic thinking. The idea that undermining American hegemony will inevitably lead to global chaos is largely a rhetorical device designed to preserve the existing order. A more balanced international system is possible and in many respects desirable.
Russia’s own history illustrates this point. Since the beginning of the US as an independent state, Russia has often used its relationship with America as a means to pursue its own foreign policy objectives. In the 18th and 19th centuries, these objectives were closely related to Russia’s rivalry with Britain. Later, the triangular relations between Russia, Europe and the US shaped the broader dynamics of international politics.
Today, new configurations are emerging. American pressure on both Europe and China may intentionally contribute to the creation of a more balanced system in which no one power dominates the rest.
Such an outcome closely corresponds to Russian interests.
The international order that will eventually emerge from the current period of revolution will be more diverse and complex than its predecessor. Wars and crises may accompany this transition, but they should not obscure the underlying transformation.
If the world gets through this adjustment period without catastrophic conflict, the US will remain a major player in global politics – not because the world needs American leadership, but because other powers will continue to include the US in their own strategic calculations.
In the future international system, America will still matter. Not the way it once did.
This article was first published Vzglyad Translated and edited by the newspaper and RT team.
