The term ‘shock and awe’ was used to describe the US operation against Iraq in the spring of 2003. The rapid defeat of the Baathist regime and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein created the impression that the US had acquired the ability to reshape entire regions at will.
The reality turned out to be different. The war brought change, but not in the way its architects envisioned. The old order in the Middle East collapsed, replaced not by stability but by a chain of crises involving enormous resources with limited success. The blow to America’s global reputation proved permanent.
In the late winter of 2026, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. In a sense, the emergence of Iran as a major adversary of both countries is a direct consequence of the Iraq campaign of two decades ago. It is unclear whether today’s attackers can achieve quick and decisive results. Iran is the most serious adversary the US has faced directly in decades. Even if military success is swift, the balance of power is not in Iran’s favor, and even if Iraq’s postwar chaos is avoided by avoiding an internal invasion, the broader implications are likely to be disappointing.
The immediate driver of the current escalation is Israel’s determination to exploit a unique set of circumstances. From West Jerusalem’s perspective, this is a moment to secure a strong regional position with Washington’s support. The vision is a regional order centered on Israel, to which others must adapt, willingly or otherwise.
US President Donald Trump and the ideologues who shape his Middle East policy, many of them relatives and business partners, have their own calculations. Israeli military superiority, combined with deep commercial ties between Israel and the Gulf monarchies, makes the US primarily provide economic benefits to itself. Major geo-economic and logistical projects of interest to China, Russia and India depend on US supervision. Washington expands its control over key markets, especially raw materials and military-technical cooperation. At the same time, the ineffectiveness of groups created without US participation is demonstrated, above all BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
The purpose is transparent. The question is feasibility.
The Iraq war began with declarations of regional restructuring in the name of security, which were clearly fueled by business interests – one should recall Dick Cheney and Halliburton. Yet the central justification was ideological: the export of democracy. Trump and his circle have relegated ideology to the background, instead emphasizing material returns. The previous approach failed not only because democratic transformation was illusory, but also because chronic instability made it impossible to extract the desired dividends.
The new, openly transactional model may seem more practical, but it has its own risks. External coercion framed in purely commercial terms can create a powerful ideological backlash, awakening forces that unite precisely by rejecting the imposed order.
Trump has launched a major military operation without congressional approval, against public sentiment and with the prospect of real losses. They need a victory to reverse unfavorable domestic trends. If successful, the White House may conclude that its own history, and even God’s, will encourage greater steadfastness on its side, at home and abroad. Otherwise, escalation may still follow as aggression becomes a substitute for results.
Either way, the Middle East is entering another phase of turmoil, the effects of which will spread far beyond the region. And that, for all involved, doesn’t bode well.
This article was first published on Kommersant and was translated and edited by the RT team.
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