Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas exports for the past four days with a mix of drone strikes and fear that has halted commercial maritime traffic despite intense US attacks on the Iranian navy.
At least four tankers have been hit and Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported that shipping traffic had fallen by 80% on Sunday, with little sign of recovery as major marine insurers canceled cover the following day.
In an effort to increase the threat, on Monday, Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s revolutionary guards, said: “We will attack and burn any ship that attempts to cross.”
In fact, the most recent incidents at sea occurred on Sunday, according to the UK Maritime Trade Organization. An unknown projectile exploded “very close” to a ship 40 miles west of Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates on March 1, it said, although no serious casualties were reported.
Despite the rhetoric, Tehran’s ability to attack ships is likely to be sharply reduced. The US Central Command (Centcom) has waged a sustained campaign to attack Iran’s small navy and said on Monday it had sunk or crippled all 11 ships the navy had operating in the Gulf of Oman, east of the strait.
These include the Shahid Bagheri, a container ship converted in two years to transport, launch and recover drones and helicopters and, in theory, a means to extend and project military power deep into the region; Iranian officials say it could remain at sea for 12 months with facilities such as a hospital on board.
Gen. Dan Caine, head of the U.S. Army, said in a briefing Monday that the U.S. attack on Iran began with Tomahawk cruise missile strikes that “closed in on Iranian naval forces” and were accompanied by “strikes across Iran’s entire southern flank.” Satellite images showed that the Iranian naval base of Bandar Abbas came under heavy attack.
While Israel has focused on attacking Tehran and politically important regime sites, a key part of the US military effort has been securing the south of the country, controlling the sea routes and airspace there.
The U.S. military also said it has seen no signs that Iran is escalating its attempt to undermine both two-mile-wide shipping lanes with the help of its small submarine fleet. Although details are scarce, Centcom said it had targeted the Iranian submarine fleet in Bandar Abbas as well.
However, tankers loaded with oil, natural gas or other fossil fuel products have refused to risk transiting out of the Gulf, although there are reports that some are considering turning off their tracking transponders and risking a nighttime transit, even if they are not insured.
It is conventionally said that about a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. But that hides considerable regional and national variations: while American countries import 12.5% of their oil through the strait, the proportion rises to 45.7% for China, according to the Kpler data agency.
Meanwhile, Iran’s strategy has rapidly evolved toward bombing infrastructure and ships in the port, with apparently more effective results. Satellite images showed damage to two parts of the Saudi Ras Tanura oil refinery, the country’s largest. It was closed on Monday after two drones were intercepted over the site and their debris caused a fire.
Qatar’s state energy company on Monday halted production of liquefied natural gas “due to military attacks.” A day later, a fire broke out in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates after a drone was intercepted in the city’s port area, a key oil storage and trading hub.
The result so far is that oil and gas prices have skyrocketed. Brent crude, a global benchmark, rose to $83 a barrel, up 15% from its level on Friday. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is considering proposals for the U.S. government to help the region’s oil tankers obtain insurance to restore confidence after a war the United States and Israel started.
