NPR’s Michael Martin asked Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour how leaders in Tehran are thinking about war with the US and Israel.
Michael Martin, Host:
So now let’s consider how Iran’s leaders are thinking about this third week of war. For this let’s go to Karim Sadjadpur. He is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace focusing on Iran and US foreign policy in the Middle East. Welcome, Karim Sadjadpur. Thanks for joining us again.
Karim Sadjadpour: Thanks for having me, Michael.
MARTIN: As I think most people know, the former supreme leader of Iran was killed on the first day of the war. The new supreme leader is his son Mojtaba Khamenei. He has not been seen in public. So is Mojtaba in charge of Iran now?
Sadjadpour: You know, Michael, actually, we can guess who is the most powerful person in Iran right now. On paper, it was Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ayatollah Khamenei. But we also know that he was injured in the attack that killed his father, wife and mother. He is probably living in hiding, because there live underground – the Israelis are actively trying to kill him. And he is a novice. He has not formally held any senior position. So practically, I think the military, the Revolutionary Guards, are in charge right now in Iran.
MARTIN: And do we have any sense of what the current power structure is?
Sadjadpur: Well, the way the Revolutionary Guards are now fighting this war is in a very decentralized fashion. So instead of having a general based in Tehran, he’s leading the war in reconciliation, what he calls a mosaic defense. They have 31 units across the country, which are operating independently. Now, if the decision is taken to end the war, I think those 31 factions will probably cease fire. But this time, they are acting like the 31 legs of an octopus.
MARTIN: I think that kind of invites the question, then, who can negotiate with, if there is a willingness to negotiate. And Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi was on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. I’ll play a short clip of what he said.
(soundbite from the TV show, “Face the Nation”)
Abbas Araghi: We are, you know, stable and quite strong. We are protecting our people from this act of aggression – you know. And we see no reason why we should talk to the Americans.
MARTIN: How do you hear that?
Sadjadpur: Well, Iran’s foreign minister is not a powerful position. I see him as a messenger pigeon. So if negotiations do take place at some point, he will have to liaise with senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, presumably Mojtaba Khamenei. But I don’t think the administration should compromise now. It thinks its strategy is working.
MARTIN: Well, in part, I guess, because oil has become more expensive since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through it. You’ll recall that President Trump said on Sunday that China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK would hopefully send military ships there. He urged some unnamed countries to help. Do you think this indicates to Iran’s leaders that their strategy is actually working?
Sadjadpour: Well, there are two key points that Iran’s leaders are paying close attention to. Obviously, one is the price of oil. The second is public opinion in the United States. And they see that this war is unpopular with the American public, and they hope that at some point public opinion will force President Trump to back down. I think what President Trump is trying to do right now is to internationalize the solution, which is – as you said, the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the oil and natural gas and fertilizer that leave the Strait of Hormuz are not bound for the West. It is actually bound for Asia. So he’s basically appealing to the Chinese and the Indians and others, listen, this is your energy security, and you have to come help solve the problem.
MARTIN: And I – I’m asking, though, again, from the Iranian perspective, what does this imply? I mean, do you have any sense of whether they think their pressure points are as effective as they think they are?
Sadjadpur: This time, again, they think it’s going in their favor. That may change next week. But ultimately, what I noticed is that Michael, President Trump, when he started this war, he wanted to change the nature of the Iranian regime from death to America and death to Israel. And there is no evidence that this is an administration prepared to change its longstanding role.
MARTIN: That’s Karim Sadjadpour with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Mr Sadjadpur, Thanks again for sharing your insights with us. We appreciate it.
Sadjadpur: Thanks for having me.
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