Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz as the US and Israel continue to carry out airstrikes in the country, which has been described as the “biggest oil disruption in history”.
Steve Inskip, Host:
Iran’s new Supreme Leader issued his first statement, or at least issued a statement in his name. Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, and Iran will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway, he says. He said Iran would come forward with attacks on US military targets in the region. NPR national security correspondent Greg Maire joins us again.
Greg, good morning.
GREG MAIR, BYLINE: Hi, Steve.
INSKEEP: What do you learn from this statement?
Maire: Well, first, as you noted, we didn’t see the new leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and we didn’t hear his voice. The statement was read under his name in Iranian state media. So the important questions are, what condition is he in? He is believed to have been injured in an Israeli airstrike on the 1st day of the war that killed the former supreme leader, his father and his mother, his wife and his son.
INSKEEP: Yes.
Maire: So it didn’t answer the question about his health or where he might be. He is believed to have gone into hiding to protect himself from another possible attack. But the tone of the statement was entirely harsh and defiant. It said Iran would push the war forward on two key fronts — attacks on US bases and effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran could open new fronts in the war, but did not specify.
INSKEEP: Well, when they talk about the Strait of Hormuz, they’re clearly saying that nothing flows through the Straits, but they’re also clearly saying that Iran is happy to build pressure to end the war or is willing to damage the global economy.
Maire: Yes, that’s absolutely right. That means, Iran will also suffer. They can’t or probably won’t be able to export oil. And the US has sunk much of Iran’s navy, including minesweepers. But Iran has other ways to hit these oil tankers and cargo ships. The Strait of Hormuz is extremely narrow, only 20 miles or so at its narrowest point. And Iranian forces ashore can fire drones or rockets or missiles at ships, and several have been attacked in the past couple of days. This is an absolutely crucial issue when this war is going on.
INSKEEP: Yes, we see a lot of video and pictures of ships on fire, smoke on ships, ships wrecked. What is the effect of all that?
Maire: Yes, Steve. We saw the early impact today. Oil rose again, touching $100 a barrel, although it retreated slightly. The world consumes a little more than 100 million barrels of oil per day, and about 20 million barrels of that, or 20%, come through the Strait of Hormuz. And the pressure on oil prices continues to grow daily. Gregory Brew follows Iran and energy issues at the Eurasia Group. He spoke at a forum organized by the Cato Institute.
Gregory Brew: We are currently experiencing the largest oil supply disruption in history. Energy prices remain high. Iran’s strategy to pressure the United States will continue, and President Trump will continue to feel the pressure.
INSKEEP: When they say the biggest disruption in history, wow, how long can Iran keep it up?
Maire: Yes, probably for a while and in the future Iran’s strategy is to close the Straits for as long as possible to inflict as much economic pain as possible with the goal of preventing the US and Israel from striking Iran again. Here is Negar Mortazavi. He is with the Center for International Policy in Washington.
Negar Mortajavi: For Iran, they are essentially playing the long game. The war will continue until they achieve a ceasefire or peace that will ensure they don’t become the next Lebanon or the next Gaza, where Israel, with the help of the US, thinks they can come in and mow the grass.
Maire: And, Steve, you know the phrase how Israel describes its periodic attacks in Gaza or Lebanon is mowing the grass.
INSKEEP: Greg, President Trump started this war with a lot of talk about Iran’s nuclear program. Is the US hitting that program?
Maire: Boy, we’re not hearing anything about that, and the biggest single question is the status of about 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which is believed to be at a site near the central city of Isfahan, and that material would be absolutely critical to making a bomb if Iran tried to do that.
INSKEEP: NPR’s Greg Maire. Thanks for the update.
Maire: Sure, Steve.
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