I ran the numbers for 2026. The winner is not who you expect


  • The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) has gained 12% year-to-date with a 3.39% dividend yield and 10.61% average annual dividend growth over 10 years, outperforming the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) at 2.35% (DGRO) at 7.49% three-year dividend growth. SCHD has only 9% in tech stocks, 21% allocation to energy, 17% to consumer defense, and 16% to healthcare, compared to significant tech exposures in VYM and DGRO.

  • With capital moving from speculative AI stocks to defensive dividend stocks, SCHD is positioned to lead dividend ETFs after a three-year run.

  • An analyst named NVIDIA just named his top 10 AI stocks in 2010. Get it for free here.

Tech and growth ETFs are constantly changing, and it’s hard to keep up with them. Even certain dividend ETFs have turned themselves into tech stocks using covered calls, and Schwab US Equity Dividend ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD), Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETF (NYSEARCA: VYM )and iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:DGRO) Only the refugees remain.

When someone wants a common stock ETF they can buy, hold and reinvest for snowballing income, they often prefer to just sell instead of holding several at once. 2026 started out as a tumultuous year, so looking at this year’s performance is a good gauge of how these ETFs may perform over the long term.

Of course, performance over the past few months alone is not a good barometer of how they might perform in the future. We will also see what the future holds for each of them.

READ: The analyst named NVIDIA in 2010 Just naming his top 10 AI stocks

No beating around the bush here. This ETF has been killing it for the past few months, and it will surprise you if you can’t keep up with the market. The Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF was one of the worst performing dividend equity ETFs from 2022 to 2025. You barely got any capital gains, and the dividends you got weren’t enough to put you ahead of the market.

Many other ETFs run AI portfolios, while SCHD had the fewest tech names to talk about in its holdings. This set the stock back significantly, as non-AI stocks lagged behind.

2026 changed the equation significantly, and SCHD began the year with a large number of well-to-do partners. Investors are no longer blindly buying into any company that presents itself as an AI company. Wall Street is now very picky about companies it believes deserve a premium, and for the first time in a while, capital is finally flowing into defensive and dividend stocks. This is SCHD’s place, and I expect the ETF to be very high this year.

Add Comment