Has Bitcoin reacted as expected the conflict between the United States and Iran, which continues a pattern that has always appeared during previous geopolitical tensions. Crypto prices are digesting recent developments, and analysts are comparing the current price structure to similar moments in 2022 and 2023, when Bitcoin initially sold off before a strong recovery.
War Heads and Rally Pattern 20%-40%
Recent geopolitical tensions comes in an already delicate period for the crypto market. Bitcoin is already down 48% from its all-time high and is on track to close its fifth monthly red candle. The leading cryptocurrency also recorded its worst start to the first two months of the year, down 24% since January. February closed 14.8% below its open, making it the third worst February in Bitcoin history. The only weaker February was in 2025, when Bitcoin closed 17.5% below its open, and in 2014, when the monthly close was 33% below its open.
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows shared the weekly chart describes how Bitcoin has behaved during previous diplomatic tensions. In February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Bitcoin fell by nearly 40% in the months that followed. In June 2025, after the Israeli attack on Iran, Bitcoin initially sold off again, but later recovered about 25%.
Now, after the US attacks on Iran on Saturday, Bitcoin has once again reacted negatively. The question Pillows raises is whether the same pattern of post-concussion recovery occurs again.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @TedPillows On X
Another Sherlock analyst, focused on short-term reactions. He noted that during past attacks by the US or Israel on Iran, Bitcoin typically dropped sharply over the weekend and recovered within 24 to 48 hours.
In April 2024, after the Iranian attack, Bitcoin fell by 8% overnight and recovered within two days. In October 2024, the 3% reduction was eliminated within 24 hours.
In June 2025, US shocks led to a 6% decline, which recovered by Sunday, followed by a 62% rally over the next two months to an all-time high in October. Interestingly, the initial movement in each case occurred before the opening of traditional financial markets.
The market has already been deeply corrected
It should be noted that the current setup is different from the previous episodes, because Bitcoin was already in a strong trend during the geopolitical shock of 2025. The structure of today’s market looks very different, as Bitcoin has been in a long decline for five months.
Bitcoin weekly RSI is currently the lowest in its history. The Fear & Greed index was also included severe fear for 22 consecutive days. Furthermore, leveraged positions have been greatly reduced, with open attention to low readings.
Panic selling has in previous cases followed the geopolitical event itself. This time, however, most of the forced sales and remittances occurred before the strike. Based on this warning, the weak hands are mostly out of action and the excess gear has already been removed. Therefore, Bitcoin may not be looking at a long-term decline from volatility and may stabilize sooner than in previous episodes.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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