High risk area? Analysts as Bitcoin (BTC) ignore geopolitical turmoil

Analysts believe that geopolitical shocks have not been able to override the short-term outlook and medium-term decline.

Bitcoin’s reaction to rising geopolitical tensions was limited over the weekend, even as traditional markets reacted more strongly. BTC fell to around $65,500 on Monday after trading in a range of $63,000 to $68,000 as markets reacted to rising US-Iranian tensions and reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been killed in a joint US-Israeli airstrike.

Despite the violent and volatile backdrop, market commentators say the conflict has not changed Bitcoin’s trajectory.

High risk area

In X’s post, Mr. Wall Street stated that “nothing has changed with the new war.” He said he doesn’t believe the bottom of the cycle will reach $60,000. According to him, the bottom of the cycle will be at the end of this year, around $45,000, but only after Bitcoin first reaches the range of $80,000-$85,000.

The analyst’s outlook is bullish in the short term and bearish in the medium term. This shows that while geopolitical shocks can cause volatility, he does not believe they will invalidate expectations of a near-term pump that will be followed by a deeper phase of correction. Another prominent crypto market commentator, Dr. Profit, also stated that the war would not change his broader bearish stance.

He wrote that Bitcoin “remains in the zone of absolute high risk” and the market has not yet bottomed out.

“War won’t change my bearish outlook on Crypto and Stocks.”

She also added that she is completely sterile and that her “big shorts” have been on since September. Both analysts, despite their differences in short-term direction, emphasized that the geopolitical upheaval has not fundamentally changed their pre-existing market propositions.

The US-Iran conflict has already been assessed?

Trader CrypNuevo said the market had already priced in the US-Iran conflict over the past week. He went on to explain that markets could not fall further as the incident was widely expected, but pointed to uncertainty surrounding the length of the war and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. According to them, the stock futures, which Bitcoin tends to follow, will likely open negative and may recover after the de-escalation talks emerge.

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They said a protracted conflict was unlikely, citing concerns that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would lead to higher oil prices and higher inflation in the US, which they do not expect. The strategy is waiting for the reaction of the stock market on Monday. So, if a sharp sell-off occurs, they will extend Bitcoin around $61,000-$60,000 before the news of a slowdown. On the other hand, if there is only a slight dip, sideways movement or pump, they will delay entering a long position until the end of the week.