 
 
The chain’s historical data suggests that Bitcoin bear markets have ended at a certain point, and analysts say the signal deserves serious attention in the current period.
João Wedson of Alphractal Research pointed out that previous bear markets end when the short-term action price crosses the long-term holder’s action price. This crossover has historically marked a capitulation among newer market entrants, moving coins into strong hands.
In past periods, when this change occurred, the bearish momentum faded and phases of accumulation began. A subsequent bull market usually begins when these two indicators cross again and lasts for about three years.
Analysts believe that the relationship between short-term and long-term cost bases remains one of the most reliable structural signals for determining the end of a cycle.
Although this chain trigger is not clearly resolved in the current environment, technical analysts see early signs of stabilization. Bitcoin is trading around $67,911, which is described as a structurally important area.
 
Young Marks points out that price action creates an implicit upward divergence, a pattern that often precedes continuation movements. If the support holds, he believes Bitcoin could set the stage for another wave of expansion, possibly targeting $116,652 and eventually retesting the all-time highs of $126,000.
At the same time, waiting for the improvement of the data from the completed phase of the bear. The current decline of about 47% from the peak to the daily close is well below the more than 90% collapse of 2012.
However, Darkfost noted that bear markets have become progressively more intense over time. If this moderating trend continues, a correction in the 60-70% range will be more in line with previous periods.
Bitcoin is hovering near $68,000 at press time after geopolitical instability related to developments in Iran led to sharp intraday swings. ETF outflows totaling $9.15 billion over the past four months, along with broader macro uncertainty, continue to weigh on sentiment, leaving investors wondering whether the chain’s signals confirm the end of the recession.
