Gold hits $5,400 as safe-haven demand rises amid Iran conflict

Gold ( GC=F ) futures pared gains after trading near $5,400 an ounce on Monday as a broader conflict in the Middle East pushed investors toward safer assets.

Analysts at JPMorgan expect the “risk premium” jump in gold prices to exceed 5% to 10% in the near term as a result of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran over the weekend and retaliatory strikes in the region.

However, this rise in geopolitical rates “could be quick but hard to sustain,” analysts said.

Gains can be reversed if conflicts subside or equity market losses prompt investors to sell assets to cover losses or raise cash. On Monday, US stocks opened lower.

Read more: How to protect your money during turbulent, volatile stock markets

Despite the potential for short-term volatility, JPMorgan predicts demand from central banks and investors will eventually push gold to $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026.

“The near-term rise in the geopolitical risk premium clearly aligns with our bullish view on gold, but it’s far from the only reason we’re structurally bullish on the metal,” wrote JPMorgan’s Patrick Jones.

A prolonged conflict could highlight long-term drivers of gold prices, such as rising deficits and the risk of a worsening economic backdrop if high oil prices continue.

On Monday, gold traded about $200 below the all-time high set in January, after ending its eighth straight month of gains.

The move pushed gold’s annual gains to 21%, which boosted central bank purchases, low interest rates, and weak demand for the dollar.

Read more: Thinking of buying gold? Here’s what investors should be looking for.

“With a few notable exceptions, 2026 looks like 2025 on steroids,” Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote over the weekend.

The metals complex ret reversed recent gains on Monday as silver ( SI=F ) futures fell 3%. The metal is still up 17% year-to-date. Palladium (PA=F) and platinum (PL=F) also recovered as the US dollar (DX-Y.NYB) strengthened. Both metals are still positive for the year.