Global oil and gas prices are rising as the Iran crisis hampers shipments and production


By Youssef Saba and Ahmed Alayum

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) – Global oil and gas prices rose on Tuesday as a U.S.-Israeli war against Iran halted energy exports from the Middle East, with Tehran attacking ships and energy facilities, blocking shipping in the Gulf and halting production from Qatar to Iraq.

Benchmark Brent crude futures settled up $3.66, or 4.7%, at $81.40 a barrel, the highest settlement since January 2025. European gas prices rose 40% before paring gains, adding to Monday’s 40% gain. The prices of sugar, mustard and soybeans have also increased.

The war risks fueling rising inflation that could derail economic recovery in Europe and Asia if the war drags on in a region that produces only a third of the world’s oil and nearly a fifth of its natural gas. The price hike could also pose a political threat to US President Donald Trump and his Republicans in November’s midterm elections.

Trump said the U.S. Navy could begin transporting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed, adding that he had ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf. It was one of the administration’s most drastic moves to try to stem rising energy prices as conflicts escalate in the Middle East.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, said it would be forced to cut production by more than 3 million barrels a day within days if oil tankers could not move freely to loading points, according to two Iraqi officials.

As of Tuesday, Iraq had cut 700,000 bpd from the Rumila oil field and 460,000 bpd from the West Qurna 2 field, officials said.

Shipping has stagnated, oil and gas production has declined

Transport through the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut down for a fourth day after Iran attacked five ships, blocking the artery supplying about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG.

According to Vortexa ship tracking data, oil tanker transit through the strait dropped to four vessels on March 1, a day after the war began, for an average of 24 per day since January. Three of the four were Iranian-flagged.

Hundreds of tankers loaded with oil and LNG are stranded near major hubs such as the UAE’s Fujairah port, unable to reach customers in Asia, Europe and elsewhere.

Some companies are looking for alternative ways.

Saudi oil giant Aramco 2223.SE is trying to get some crude to the western Red Sea port of Yanbu, but sources, including buyers, traders and analysts, said Aramco’s east-west pipeline has limited capacity and could be targeted by Iran’s allies.

On Tuesday, an oil tank in Oman’s commercial port of Duqm was hit by a drone and a fire broke out in the UAE’s Fujairah, one of the main regional oil hubs, slowing refueling of ships and possible transfer of demand to other ports, including Singapore.

On Monday, Qatar shut down its liquefied natural gas facilities, some of the world’s largest, which provide about 20% of the world’s LNG exports. Saudi Arabia suspended production at its largest domestic refinery, while Israel and Iraqi Kurdistan also halted their gas and oil production.

Elsewhere, Chinese refiners have begun closing units in response to the impact of a dispute over crude supplies. India, one of the largest exporters of oil and gas from the Middle East, has said it has started supplying ration gas to industries after Qatar shut down production.

Rising gas prices pose political risks

In the United States, where gasoline prices are a key point of political pressure, the cost rose above $3 a gallon for the first time since November, just weeks after Trump touted his achievements in lowering prices.

Higher prices at the pump mark a bigger risk for Trump’s Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.

Most Qatari LNG goes to Asia, but some also goes to Europe, which is completely dependent on imported oil and gas. Europe is expected to scramble to replenish reserves, depleted by the cold winter weather, and become more reliant on U.S. gas after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine deprives it of Russian gas.

Shipping rates have hit all-time highs as the conflict widens and Tehran targets ships crossing the strait.

Missile Stockpile Assessment

Western security experts are looking to assess how many missiles and drones Iran has left to maintain the intensity of its attacks.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Kuwait have so far fired several missiles and drones at energy facilities, ports and airports, but raised concerns if their anti-drone and anti-missile stockpiles are running low.

(Reporting by Youssef Saba, Ahmed Elimam; Additional reporting by Ahmed Ghader and Alex Lawler in London and Nidhi Verma in Delhi; Writing by Dmitri Zhdanikov and Nina Chestney; Editing by Sharon Singleton and David Gregorio)

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