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Credit: UNDP Ukraine
– The current military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which began in February 2022 with no visible signs of ending, has triggered major arms transfers to Europe.
According to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the volume of major weapons transferred between states increased by 9.2 percent between 2016-20 and 2021-25.
And European states more than tripled their arms imports, making it the region’s largest recipient.
Total exports from the United States, the world’s largest arms supplier, rose 27 percent. This included a 217 percent increase in US arms exports to Europe, according to new data released by SIPRI, available at www.sipri.org.
The increase in global arms flows was the largest since 2011-2015 and was “overwhelmingly due to the growth in transfers to Ukraine” (which received 9.7 percent of all arms transfers in 2021-25) and other European states.
In addition to Europe and America, arms imports to all other regions of the world decreased.
Dr MV Ramana, Professor and Simons Chair of Disarmament, Global and Human Security and Acting Director of the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, told IPS that the continued rise in the arms trade, in which some European countries and the United States are involved in the vast majority, is deeply worrying.
This should be seen in the context of rising military spending around the world (reaching an estimated $2.7 trillion by 2024), an intensified round of great power competition, as well as the collapse of arms control and new technologies such as AI-based targeting systems and drones being used in warfare, he said.
“These weapons and other technologies are not simply sold and stockpiled by receiving armies, but are also used in attacks against civilian populations; in recent years there have been significant attacks against innocent people in Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Ukraine and Iran.”
Although some of these imports are being rationalized as responses to various perceived threats, he noted, these actions will in turn increase threat perceptions in other countries, leading to a feedback loop that will result in the sale and use of more and more weapons.
“Much of this money flows to companies that profit from making weapons and facilitating death. In the United States alone, during roughly the same period covered by the SIPRI report, from 2020 to 2024, private companies received $2.4 trillion in Pentagon contracts, about 54% of the department’s $4.4 trillion discretionary spending during that period,” Dr. Ramana said.
The United States supplied 42 percent of all international arms transfers in 2021-25, up from 36 percent in 2016-20, according to the SIPRI report, released March 9.
The United States exported weapons to 99 countries between 2021 and 2025, including 35 in Europe, 18 in the Americas, 17 in Africa, 17 in Asia and Oceania, and 12 in the Middle East.
For the first time in two decades, the bulk of American arms exports went to Europe (38 percent) rather than the Middle East (33 percent). However, the largest recipient of US arms was Saudi Arabia (12 percent of US arms exports).
“The United States has further consolidated its dominance as an arms supplier, even in an increasingly multipolar world,” said Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher at SIPRI’s Arms Transfers Programme.
“For importers, American weapons offer advanced capabilities and a way to foster good relations with the US, while the US views arms exports as a foreign policy tool and a way to strengthen its arms industry, as the Trump administration’s new America First Arms arms transfer strategy once again makes clear.”
Dr. Natalie Goldring, who represents the Acronym Institute at the United Nations on conventional arms and arms trade issues, told IPS that the SIPRI report is, in effect, a snapshot of an ever-changing global situation.
SIPRI, he said, uses five-year periods to help reduce volatility, but even then, intense geopolitical swings can be difficult to capture. This period reflects the buildup of weapons in Ukraine following the Russian invasion in 2022, as well as Israel’s near-complete destruction of Gaza following the Hamas attack in 2023.
“Given that the most recent US and Israeli attacks on Iran took place in 2026, they are not covered in the SIPRI report. Those attacks may result in even more arms transfers from the US to Israel, as well as significant domestic resupply in both countries.”
The Israeli military’s dependence on American arms transfers, he said, is neither secret nor new. But the SIPRI statistics demonstrate it quite clearly.
Between 2021 and 2025, the United States was responsible for 68 percent of the value of major weapons transferred to Israel. Germany contributed an additional 31 percent.
That could give those two countries tremendous influence over Israel and its ability to continue carrying out attacks in Gaza and elsewhere, if they choose to exercise it.
“Unfortunately, until now, the US and German governments have shown little interest in restricting their arms transfers, despite the enormous number of Palestinians who have been injured or killed by the Israeli army, and the economic devastation that the Israeli army continues to cause in Gaza and elsewhere,” Dr. Goldring said.
US participation in the global arms market is likely to increase in the future if US President Donald Trump’s recent plans are implemented. In February 2026, President Trump issued an Executive Order titled “Establishing an America First Arms Transfer Strategy.”
The stated intent of this policy is to increase American arms sales; there is no attempt at subtlety. Instead, the policy calls for the development of “a sales catalog of prioritized platforms and systems that the United States will encourage our allies and partners to acquire.”
As is often the case, American policy fails to demonstrate understanding of the complexities and potential negative consequences of arms transfers.
Instead, it focuses on economic factors and short-term benefits for military contractors. The policy also assumes that this year’s weapons recipients will maintain stable governments for the life of these weapons systems.
This approach increases the risk that US military personnel will be forced to fight with our own weapons if host governments prove unstable, Dr. Goldring stated.
Arms imports fall in the Middle East
Meanwhile, according to SIPRI, arms imports by Middle Eastern states fell by 13 percent between 2016-20 and 2021-25. Three of the world’s top 10 arms importers in 2021-25 were in the region: Saudi Arabia (6.8 percent of global imports), Qatar (6.4 percent) and Kuwait (2.8 percent).
More than half of arms imports to the Middle East came from the United States (54 percent), while 12 percent came from Italy, 11 percent from France and 7.3 percent from Germany.
“The Arab Gulf States shape arms import trends in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia has been the region’s largest importer since 2011-2015 and Qatar now the second after more than doubling its imports between 2016-2020 and 2021-25,” said Zain Hussain, researcher at SIPRI’s Arms Transfers Programme.
“With a series of regional tensions and conflicts, Arab Gulf states are working to strengthen relationships with long-standing suppliers such as the United States and France, while also seeking new suppliers.”
Israel was the world’s 14th largest arms importer in 2021-25, with its imports increasing by 12 percent between 2016-20 and 2021-25.
In 2021-25, the United States supplied the majority of Israel’s arms imports (68 percent), followed by Germany (31 percent).
Throughout the multi-front war stemming from Israel’s large-scale military offensive in Gaza that began in October 2023, Israel continued to receive weapons from various suppliers, including F-35 fighter jets, guided bombs and missiles from the United States.
https://www.sipri.org/publications/2026/sipri-fact-sheets/trends-international-arms-transfers-2025
IPS UN Office Report
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