GLD’s $75 billion can’t protect it from tariff-driven sales

• The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is down 2.43% over the past week, with net assets of $174.1B, despite a 19.1% YTD gain and a 75.96% return over the past year.

• Tariff hikes and real interest rate pressures pushed gold lower as core PCE inflation rose while Treasury yields held steady at 4.09%.

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Gold has spent 2025 and early 2026 acting like an asset that cannot. Then the tariff increase shook the base. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) fell 2.43% over the past week even as the fund is sitting on a 19.1% year-over-year gain and a 75.96% year-over-year return. Even the most defensive trades are at risk when macro stress is overwhelming.

GLD has a physical gold bullion and tracks the LBMA gold PM price, giving investors a liquid, low-competition way to own gold without setting up storage or insurance. With net assets of $174.1 billion and a net expense ratio of 0.40%, it is the dominant vehicle for gold exposure in the US market. Retail sentiment changed during the sell-off, with the Reddit discussion moving from around 66 on February 27 to a neutral reading of 47 to 59 by March 3. “How, What, and Where to Buy Physical Gold?” Subject under title. There was continued engagement throughout the week, suggesting investors are rethinking the structure rather than abandoning the article.

Real interest rates are the single most important variable for GLD’s performance over the next 12 months. Gold pays no interest and does not generate cash flow, so its appeal increases when the return on holding cash or bonds falls in inflation-adjusted terms. The 10-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.09%, down from a recent high of 4.29% in early February. The decline has helped gold, but the more important question is where inflation will go from here.

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Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, reached an index value of 127.92 in December 2025, continuing a steady rise from 125.27 in March 2025. If tariffs raise commodity prices while the Fed keeps rates steady, gold’s real profits decline. If the Fed responds by keeping rates on hold for longer than markets expect, gold faces an upside. Analyst targets for HSBC ($5,000/oz) and UBS (suggesting a 4% to 6% portfolio allocation) are built on a price cut scenario that is far from warranted.

See the Fed dot plot and the monthly core PCE spread from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, both available through FRED. If the 10-year yield rises back to a high of 4.58% in May 2025, GLD will face meaningful pressure regardless of tariff headlines.

GLD’s physical support is its main structural advantage, but it creates an understandable dynamic. When institutional investors move out of gold during major risk aversion, as happened last week when the VIX jumped 31.9% to 23.75 in the past month, GLD’s redemption could accelerate the decline in spot prices. The opposite is also true. GLD has previously attracted about $30 billion in new inflows after a historic decline of 40%, demonstrating how quickly sentiment-driven inflows can move.

Watch State Street’s weekly GLD holdings statements, which show the number of gold bars held in trust. A continued decline in reported ounces indicates pressure on institutional redemptions. A rising bar number confirms that fresh money is entering the trade. If the Fed signals rate cuts before mid-2026 and core PCE stabilizes, real yields should be under enough pressure to keep GLD moving.

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