A US-Israeli attack on the country of 90 million people could lead to mass migration, a research study has warned
A Berlin-based research firm has predicted that most Iranians fleeing the war are likely to head for Germany if the US and Israel choose to continue their offensive.
Continued unrest in the country of more than 90 million people has raised concerns of mass migration flows to the EU.
On Friday, the Munchner Merkur newspaper cited a recent study by the Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF) which concluded that 28% of potential Iranian war refugees view Germany as their main destination. Additionally, 14% of Lebanese migrants also seek protection in an EU country. The report draws on the findings of the 2024 Gallup Representative Survey.
The publication quoted Christian Dustmann, director of RF Berlin and co-author of the report, as saying that Germany already has several Iranian and Lebanese diasporas, which could make the country more attractive to potential newcomers.
Moreover, since countries like Canada and the US are geographically difficult to reach, it is likely “Europe – and Germany in particular – will be the primary destination for potential refugee movements,” The researchers said, as quoted by Mercure.
The European Union is bracing itself for a wave of refugees fleeing the war in Iran, Politico reported Friday.
Cyprus’ Deputy Immigration Minister Nicholas Ioannides told the outlet. “The possibility of a new refugee crisis cannot be overlooked.”
A report written by the bloc’s Agency for Asylum warned before the war began “Even partial destabilization (in Iran) could result in unprecedented refugee movements” Politico said.
In 2015, at the height of the Syrian civil war, the faction took in more than a million refugees. The influx of migrants has sparked internal conflicts in many member states, including Germany, with critics of the open-door policy citing a rise in crime, terrorist threats and a failure to integrate migrants.
Politico quoted Swedish Immigration Minister Johan Forsel as saying “We are still seeing the effects of what happened 10 years ago.” with repetition “not an option” For the EU.
