The results of Sunday’s local elections highlighted the influence of both the hard-left La France Insoumise (France Unbod, LFI) and the far-right National Rally (RN), while exposing fractures in traditional parties such as the Socialists (PS) and Les Républiques. In major cities, voters sent mixed signals — reinforcing old loyalties in some areas, expressing frustration with centrist and establishment candidates in others.
With the second round scheduled for March 22, tactical decisions on alliances, withdrawals and voter transfers are becoming crucial across the country. Parties have until 18:00 (Paris time) on Tuesday to finalize their lists for the runoff, intensifying negotiations and shaping candidates’ strategic calculations.
Strong performances at opposite ends of the spectrum
The right-wing RN performed strongly in some of its southern strongholds and made a notable showing in Marseille, France’s second-largest city, where it finished Close the second In the opening round.
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According to Paul Smith, associate professor in French history and politics at the University of Nottingham, the RN’s performance in Marseille reflected a long-term political trend rather than a sudden surge.
“Marseille has been ripe for the right for several years now, so the result is not too surprising,” he said, adding that if the RN eventually wins the city it will be a result of its opponents’ strategic choices.
At the same time, the hard-left LFI won enough support to advance to the second round in several major contests, including Paris, although its performance in these cities was relatively modest compared to other urban centers such as Lille, Roubaix and Toulouse.
Smith sees LFI’s broader national performance as a significant development. In previous municipal elections, the party invested relatively little in local races, focusing instead on grassroots activism rather than traditional local political contests.
“This time, it has the foundation to build on, to build on its success in the 2022 and 2024 general elections,” he said.
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However, Andrew Smith, a historian and senior lecturer in liberal arts at Queen Mary University of London, warns that the results reveal a deeper problem affecting elections in France: low voter turnout.
“The big lesson of the first round is that absenteeism is a sign of democratic disengagement,” he said. Even in closely contested races, turnout was low, leaving many voters feeling disconnected from local politics.
Polarized contests, such as Marseille, can drive higher turnout in the second round when voters face a clear choice.
Strategic alliances in key cities
The split results are forcing candidates across the political spectrum to make strategic choices ahead of the second round.
In some cities, parties are forming alliances to consolidate their votes. In others, leaders are refusing to cooperate despite ideological proximity, hoping instead to attract voters from rival camps.
In Marseille, the current mayor is Benoît Payon rejected the alliance The RN remains a strong contender, along with LFI candidate Sebastian Delogu.
Whether such decisions weaken the Left depends largely on how voters react.
“It depends on who stays in the race,” said Paul Smith. “Are the elect fixed in place or do they move?”
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Andrew Smith suggests that Payan, who clashed with Delogu throughout the campaign, would try to lure LFI voters without embracing his party, entrenching himself against the right.
“Payan is hoping he can win over LFI supporters without having to adopt a party, especially with the right breathing down his neck in elections,” he said, adding that the situation could test Delogu’s willingness to prioritize a broad anti-right coalition over strict party alignment.
Another delicate balancing act is unfolding in Paris, where Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire took a commanding lead in the first round. Rejected proposals By LFI Candidate Sofia Chikirou.
According to Paul Smith, this strategy reflects an attempt to attract moderate and center-right voters, rather than relying on hard-left voters.
“He is trying to appeal to the voters of (centre-right candidate Pierre-Yves) Bournazel instead of Chikirou,” he said. He added that Grégoire also “wants some of the LFI’s voters to want no association with the LFI”.
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It’s a risky strategy for the Socialist front-runners, knowing that Bournazel is determined to ally with Doty ahead of the second round. Right-wing candidate Sarah Knafo has also reached out to the conservative former culture minister, raising hopes of overtaking Grégoire in the March 22 runoff.
In Lyon, on the other hand, current Green Mayor Grégory Doucet has formed a second-round alliance with the LFI, increasing his chances of defeating Jean-Michel Aulas, the former head of local football club Olympique Lyonnais.
Implications for the 2027 presidential race
While municipal elections are largely driven by local dynamics, analysts say they can still provide clues about the political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Paul Smith argues that the results signal a return to a more traditional left-right divide, squeezed between President Emmanuel Macron’s shrinking centrist camp.
“This suggests that we are back to a left-right configuration,” he said, describing a system similar to the old one.Quadrill BipolarDominated by four major political parties.
On the left, the LFI and the Socialists are emerging as major competing forces, with the Greens generally trying to bridge the divide. In some cities, including Lille, the Greens have supported socialist candidates against the LFI. In others, notably in Strasbourg, he sided with the LFI against the Socialists.
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At the other end of the spectrum, conservative Les Republicans are vying for influence with a national rally that is alienating candidates and voters from the mainstream right.
How those alliances and splits play out in the coming days could influence the political landscape heading into next year’s all-important presidential and legislative contests.
As Andrew Smith says, “The 2027 presidential election campaigns will be shaped by how socialists are willing to work with the LFI and how porous the center-right is to the right.”
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