France has begun voting in the first round of municipal elections, seen as a crucial test of the political temperature ahead of next year’s presidential election.
Voting for mayors and councilors in 35,000 towns, cities and villages across France focuses on local issues such as security, housing and waste collection and is very different from national elections.
But the two-round vote held on consecutive Sundays – particularly voting in large towns and cities – will be scrutinized for what it may reveal about party strategy and alliances in France’s increasingly fragmented political landscape ahead of the 2027 presidential race.
Emmanuel Macron’s two terms end next year and there is uncertainty over which candidates will run for president of the EU’s second-largest economy. Two years after Macron called early elections in 2024, parliament remains divided, without an absolute majority, divided between the left, the far right and the centrists.
The far-right, anti-immigration National Rally (RN) is seen as a key contender in the presidential race, but has traditionally struggled to establish itself at the local level and lost councilors in the last municipal elections in 2020.
The RN seeks to preserve the largest city it controls: Perpignan, with a population of 121,000, near the Spanish border. He hopes to win another city, with targets such as Toulon on the south coast and Nimes in the southeast.
A big RN victory in a big city would allow the party to claim it is gaining momentum. He is the main opposition rival in Marseille, France’s second-largest city, governed by a left-wing coalition since 2020. In Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, Éric Ciotti – who resigned as leader of the traditional right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR), to join forces with the RN in 2024 – hopes to wrest the city from his bitter rival and former right-wing ally, Christian Estrosi. The performance of the RN in some cities will depend on whether the left-wing parties form some type of alliance or agreement to block the extreme right between the first and second rounds.
Historically, France’s major cities have been governed by center-left groups, including socialists, or by Les Républicains. Green-led coalitions won major cities in the last municipal elections in 2020, including Lyon, but are under pressure as they try to maintain their gains.
Radical leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, France Insoumise (LFI), is also seeking to gain a foothold at the local level ahead of the presidential race. It aims to have more councilors, particularly in the Paris metropolitan area, and is targeting mayoral positions in cities such as Roubaix in the north.
Any type of alliance formed between the two rounds to stop rival groups in certain towns or cities will be closely monitored. Any local agreement that brings the traditional right and the far right closer together, breaking a historic division between the two, is being carefully watched. It also remains to be seen whether the left coalitions led by the Socialists can reach agreements with Mélenchon’s LFI to stop possible advances by RN, for example in Marseille.
François Kraus, head of political studies at the IFOP polling institute, said the municipal vote should not be seen as a “primary for the presidential election” but would nonetheless reveal key trends and dynamics. “These municipal elections will certainly provide a useful barometer of the political climate,” he told Agence France-Presse.
A key issue will be the battle for the mayor of Paris. Right-wing Rachida Dati, who was culture minister under Macron as well as justice minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, is seeking to wrest Paris from the left, which has been in power for 25 years.
Dati was the first woman of North African and Muslim descent to hold a senior position in the French government and has redefined political celebrity in France. She is one of the best-known candidates for municipal elections. In September, Dati will go on trial in Paris for alleged corruption and abuse of power. She was accused of lobbying in favor of the Renault-Nissan car manufacturing group when she held a seat in the European Parliament. She has denied any wrongdoing.
Emmanuel Grégoire, deputy mayor and socialist deputy of Paris, leads a left-wing coalition in what will be a close race, in which five candidates could reach the final round.
Also closely watched is the northern port city of Le Havre, where former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has staked his 2027 presidential ambitions, suggesting that if he does not win the city he has presided over since 2014, his candidacy in the presidential race would be in doubt.
Many mayoral candidates have distanced themselves from political parties, reflecting voters’ exasperation with politics and gridlock in parliament. A large number of mayors, especially in the villages, present themselves as independents.
