Tarek Mansour, the founder of the Kalshi prediction market, has updated the platform after confirming the platform’s decision to cancel some positions that were opened after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran.
“We don’t list markets that are directly related to death. When there are markets that potentially involve death, we design the rules so that people can profit from death. That’s what we’ve done here.”
Iranian state media reported the death early Sunday after an attack a day earlier by Israel and the United States.
Mansoor said Kalshi will reimburse all payouts from the Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader market and will pay traders who opened positions before Khamenei’s death at the “last price before his death.”
Additionally, users who opened positions after Khamenei’s death were compensated the difference between the higher price paid for entry and the last trade price paid.
Kalshi’s spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the platform’s policy of not allowing “death markets” is clear and long-standing.
The platform reiterated the policy on Saturday, with Mansoor saying the death penalty terms were clearly spelled out in the market’s rules. However, this decision drew backlash from online users, who accused the platform of reducing user profits.
related to: Kalshi bans US politician on insider trading charges
Amid geopolitical tensions, suspicions of insider trading activity on market prediction platforms are growing
In February, six traders from rival Polymarket predicted that the US would launch an attack on Iran by the end of the month.
According to Bloomberg, all six wallets were created in February, mostly betting on markets related to an attack on Iran, and some of the positions were filled hours before the first explosions were heard in Tehran.
Trading patterns have raised suspicions of insider trading activity among onchain investigators and analysts.
In January, US President Donald Trump announced that the person who leaked information related to the raid and arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro had been arrested by US law enforcement agencies.
The comments fueled speculation from onchain analytics platform Lookonchain that Trump’s whistleblower may have placed winning bets on Polymarket shortly before the US raid in Caracas.
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