Nepal’s 35-year-old Balendra Shah took an unbeaten lead over ousted Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in a hotly contested encounter in the southeastern district of Jhapa on Saturday, according to Election Commission data.
Shah was leading by over 55,500 votes, with Oli trailing by 15,409.
With 80 percent of the votes counted, AFP calculations show Shah has crossed the threshold of victory.
If the trends from the vote count confirm, the victory of the veteran Marxist leader of the 35-year-old Shah – and his rise from city mayor to potential prime minister – will mark one of the most dramatic results in recent Nepalese politics.
According to Election Commission trends, Shah’s centrist Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is poised to win the parliamentary elections with an overwhelming majority, but the count is still a long way off.
Thursday’s high-stakes elections came six months after deadly protests toppled the government, killing at least 77 people.
September 2025’s youth-led demonstrations, under the loose Gen Z banner, began over a brief social media ban but quickly tapped into broader grievances over corruption and a struggling economy.
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According to early trends issued by the Election Commission, 35-year-old Shah’s RSP is on track to win a majority in the 275-member House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament.
Going by the trend, Rashtriya Swatantra Party has taken the lead in many places and won several seats, said commission spokesperson Narayana Prasad Bhattarai.
“It’s heading for a landslide victory – it reflects the frustration that’s been building,” said political analyst Chandra Deva Bhatta.
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“This is actually a revolt of the people against the established political parties,” he said.
“People understand that the new one doesn’t really have strong agendas, but it’s a punishment for the parties for their decades of poor governance.”
‘One Day Will Come’
On Saturday morning, the second day of counting, there were only 48 declared results – the RSP won 39, the Nepali Congress won five and ousted Prime Minister Oli’s Marxist party trailed in two.
Former Maoist guerrilla commander Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s party has one seat.
But trends show that Shah’s RSP is leading in 90 of the remaining 117 constituencies in direct elections.
It has comfortably secured more than half the votes counted so far in the proportional representation vote that will decide 110 more seats through party lists.
Bhatt said that the result of the direct election would be ready by Monday, but the full result would take more time.
“According to our plan, it will take at least a week to count the proportional votes, after which the election will go through the official process,” he said.
He said the count was “going smoothly” across the Himalayan nation, from snow-capped mountains to the hot plains bordering India.
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On Friday, Shah’s party loyalists danced in celebration in the streets of Kathmandu, saying the final results could take days.
RSP vice-president DP Aryal urged supporters to hold off on the celebrations.
“Once we work, we will have a day to celebrate,” he posted on social media late Friday.
Shah has also taken a major lead in the seat he is contesting – a head-to-head contest against ousted Prime Minister Oli, 74, symbolizing a clash between the old guard and a youth-inspired call for change.
Shah, known as Balen, followed his musical fame and strong social media presence to become Kathmandu’s first independent mayor in 2022.
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The Nepali Congress, the largest party in the previous coalition government, is lagging in its new leader Gagan Thapa’s home constituency.
“It’s a bigger upset than we expected – it underlines the level of public discontent with the old parties for underperformance, as well as anger over the events of September,” said Kunda Dixit, publisher of the Nepali Times weekly.
In Zapa, soldiers with armored trucks put up barbed wire barricades around the counting station.
Yajna Prasad Adhikari, a 49-year-old businessman who traveled from Kathmandu to vote, said he would support calls for calm before the full results are ready.
We need people who work, not talkers, he said. “We support not celebrating Ballen.”
Meanwhile, the charred remains of Oli’s house in Jappa – which burned down during the unrest, as did hundreds of other buildings, including the parliament – serve as a reminder of the deadly violence that took place last year.
74-year-old Dharmakala Gautam, who watched the house burn down, said he was tired of politicians’ promises not being fulfilled.
“When the Maoists came to power, we hoped for change – but not much happened,” he said. “I hope this time too.”
(With FRANCE 24 AFP)
(Tags to translate)Asia / Pacific(T)Nepal(T)Election(T)Protest(T)General Z(T)Mayor
