NPR’s Leila Fadel asks Dana Stroll, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, what Iran’s current military capabilities are and whether it is retaliating with full force.
A Martinez, Host:
Iran is attacking the Gulf countries in retaliation to the US and Israel attacks. Israel is focusing its fire this morning on taking out Iranian missiles and launchers, allowing it to retaliate.
Leela Fadel, Host:
We joined Dana Stroll for more on Iran’s current military capabilities. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East in the Biden administration. He is now a senior fellow at a non-partisan think tank – the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Dana, good morning, and thanks for being on the show.
Dana Stroll: Good morning, Lila.
Fadel: So are we seeing Iran’s military power at its peak at this moment, or are they conserving their capabilities for the long term?
Stroll: I think they’re preserving their abilities for a long time. And what is clear is that the Iranian leadership, even under the now deceased Supreme Leader Khamenei, has thought through the scenarios of Israel and the United States attacking together and decided to extend and spread the pain and their retaliation that we saw in the 12-day war last year, where only Iran attacked Israel.
Fadel: What is Iran’s strategy right now, its long-term goal?
Stroll: The administration’s long-term goal is to survive intact. And I think what we’ve seen in the last three days is an incremental rise up the ladder. They are climbing it really fast. So they went from attacking US military bases and Israel to civilian hotels and civilian airports across the Gulf and Middle East. Yesterday, they began attacking energy infrastructure in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia – and last night, US diplomatic facilities such as the embassy in Riyadh.
But they have a lot of cards to play. We know that Iran has cultivated a global network of sleeper cells. Those cells are not activated. We have not seen more attacks on critical infrastructure across the Middle East. There may be more attacks on energy infrastructure. So many ways for it to go bad.
Fadel: Could their strategy of attacking US assets and civilian infrastructure in regional countries backfire?
Stroll: It might backfire, but right now, it’s actually a unifying effect. So what the Iranians are trying to do is de-escalate and daylight between the United States and its longtime partners that host tens of thousands of these U.S. troops across the Middle East. But instead of regional leaders calling Washington and trying to ask President Trump to stop and escalate this war, they are actually doubling down. They’ve been using their US-supplied, US-trained air defense assets really impressively — hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones have been intercepted in the last couple of days. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Gulf partners start joining offensive strikes inside Iran because at this point, the best defense is a strong offense.
Fadel: Now, many of Iran’s top generals have been killed in US and Israeli strikes. On top of that, Iran has these proxies – militias, allied forces around the region – Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis – that have been significantly weakened in their fight with Israel over the last few months, years. I mean, how important is their military power given these facts?
Stroll: I think I completely agree with you. They’re very downgraded, and we’re seeing a lot of decision-making or infighting within Iran’s various proxies about whether or not they can join this conflict. So Hamas – apparently it’s quiet from Gaza. Hezbollah decided to launch some rockets at Israel and now Israel is well aware of its threat, if Hezbollah enters this war, it will launch a massive operation in Lebanon. We have yet to see the Iran-backed Houthis join this war in Yemen, but we do know they could shut down international shipping at a critical maritime choke point in the Middle East. And we still haven’t seen the militias really stand up in Iraq yet.
So clearly, each of these groups is calculating the risk-reward calculus of fitting in at this time within their own domestic discourse constraints, given the type of punishment they’re taking on the Iranian regime inside Iran.
FADEL: And really quickly, does Iran pose the immediate threat that the Trump administration says it poses?
Stroll: I have yet to hear a Trump administration official make a compelling case for an imminent threat to US national security. But clearly, for decades now, we’ve seen the Iranian mix of a nuclear weapons program, ballistic missiles, and support for terrorism really threaten not just the United States, but the entire Middle East.
FADEL: Dana Stroll, formerly at the Pentagon during the Biden administration. Thank you for your time.
Stroll: Thanks for having me.
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