March 9, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; American outfielder Aaron Judge (99) hit a two-run home run in the third inning of the game against Mexico held at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Team USA survived a tumultuous group stage and, despite significant drama, is expected to win the World Baseball Classic (WBC) in the quarterfinals, which begin on Friday.
The United States started as +140 favorites to win the 2026 WBC, but their odds increased to +225 after their loss to Italy, leaving the Dominican Republic as +175 favorites midweek. Ironically, that same Italian team revitalized the United States with a win over Mexico on Wednesday.
Now in single-elimination play, Team USA is favored by 4.5 points at BetMGM with a win over Canada on Friday, with the team’s moneyline sitting at -800 on Friday afternoon. The quarterfinals begin with the Dominican Republic holding a 4.5 point lead over Korea.
Italy is a -105 favorite against Puerto Rico to start Saturday’s doubleheader, but the books do not provide a score line at this time. In the final quarterfinals, Japan will lead by 1.5 points against Venezuela.
Team USA, again the favorite to win the title at +125, is the biggest liability in the book, with the most total bets (37.8%) and money (51.2%) placed on the champions. The second largest debtor is the Dominican Republic at 26.7% and 25.2% respectively.
Next is Japan, which received support of 18.0% of the total betting amount and 12.8% of the total amount. However, Shohei Ohtani leads all players in the MVP prop market, winning 16.8% of bets and 17.6% of prize money, reducing his odds from +1100 to +500.
WBC Championship Odds*
USA (+125)
Dominican Republic (+240)
Japan (+375)
Venezuela (+900)
Puerto Rico (+1800)
Italy (+2000)
Canada (+5000)
Korea (+8000)
*BetMGM
DraftKings has eight teams in the same order, with Team USA offering slightly higher odds at +130, followed by the Dominican Republic at +250 and Japan at +370.
–Field level media
